Navy vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsUNT
- Q3 0:46UNTCaleb Hawkins 6 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)17–31
- Q3 9:48NAVYBlake Horvath 13 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)17–24
- Q2 0:03UNTKali Nguma 21 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 1:59NAVYBrandon Chatman 31 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)10–21
- Q2 5:46UNTCaleb Hawkins 14 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)3–21
- Q2 7:14NAVYNathan Kirkwood 26 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:32UNTCaleb Hawkins 3 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:57UNTCaleb Hawkins 7 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBlake Horvath 8/14, 80 YDS, 2 INT
- RushBlake Horvath 19 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEli Heidenreich 6 REC, 68 YDS
- PassDrew Mestemaker 19/24, 234 YDS
- RushCaleb Hawkins 33 CAR, 197 YDS, 4 TD
- RecCameron Dorner 3 REC, 78 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:57UNT +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USNA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 9:48NAVY +12%
No Huddle #11 B.Horvath rush left for 13 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 3:32UNT +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 3 yards gain to the USNA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 1:08UNT +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #22 L.Sides caught at NAVY06, for 19 yards to the NAVY06 (#18 P.Hamilton), 1ST DOWN
- Q2 1:59NAVY +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 B.Chatman rush right for 31 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 1:46UNT +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete deep middle to #1 M.Coleman thrown to NAVY05 broken up by #16 G.Sessi QB hurried by #58 C.Cauley PENALTY UNT Holding…
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. North Texas?
Navy 17, North Texas 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
| NAVY | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 391 | Total yards | 424 |
| 80 | Passing yards | 234 |
| 311 | Rushing yards | 190 |
| 22 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-11 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 8/14 | Comp/Att | 19/24 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 7.1 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-55 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 32:13 | Possession | 27:47 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:03 UNT field goal on 4th & 3 at NAVY 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:46UNTCaleb Hawkins 6 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)17–31
- Q3 9:48NAVYBlake Horvath 13 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)17–24
- Q2 0:03UNTKali Nguma 21 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 1:59NAVYBrandon Chatman 31 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)10–21
- Q2 5:46UNTCaleb Hawkins 14 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)3–21
- Q2 7:14NAVYNathan Kirkwood 26 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 3:32UNTCaleb Hawkins 3 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:57UNTCaleb Hawkins 7 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1674, NAVY Elo 1529 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT -8.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NAVY | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#43) | CORE overall | +11.9 (#34) |
| +13 / +3 | offense / defense | +18 / +6 |
| 3.12 | points / drive | 4.00 |
| 2.74 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| -20 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →