| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| UNT | 14 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNT Elo 1674, NAVY Elo 1529) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNT -8.2 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UNT up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Navy 17, North Texas 31.
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 3rd quarter.
(04:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath pass intercepted by #14 Q.Hammonds at UNT00, Touchback
(00:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 B.Horvath rush left for 1 yard loss to the UNT25 fumbled by #11 B.Horvath at UNT27 recovered by UNT #25 K.Lewis at UNT25, End Of Play
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