Missouri vs. Auburn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsAUB
- OT 0:00MIZBeau Pribula 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–17
- Q4 5:07MIZAhmad Hardy 3 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)17–17
- Q4 10:31AUBAlex McPherson 22 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q3 0:35AUBOmar Mabson II 1 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)10–14
- Q2 10:21MIZAhmad Hardy 2 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)10–7
- Q1 1:44MIZRobert Meyer 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:54AUBJackson Arnold 1 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AUB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassBeau Pribula 23/40, 252 YDS, 2 INT
- RushAhmad Hardy 24 CAR, 58 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDonovan Olugbode 5 REC, 69 YDS
- PassJackson Arnold 18/30, 207 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJeremiah Cobb 19 CAR, 111 YDS
- RecCam Coleman 6 REC, 108 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAUB up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00AUB +89%
J. Arnold takes a knee
- Q4 5:07MIZ +50%
Ahmad Hardy run for 3 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
- OT 0:00MIZ +42%
A.McPherson 50 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-AUB, Holder-AUB
- Q4 2:10MIZ +35%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Joshua Manning for 12 yds to the MIZ 20 for a 1ST down
- Q3 0:35AUB +33%
Omar Mabson II run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
- 3OT 0:00MIZ +32%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. B.Pribula steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for MIZZ. TWO-POINT ATTEMPT FAILS
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Auburn?
Missouri 23, Auburn 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
| MIZ | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 343 | Total yards | 357 |
| 252 | Passing yards | 207 |
| 91 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 26 | First downs | 19 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 23/40 | Comp/Att | 18/30 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-50 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 32:47 | Possession | 27:13 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:31 AUB field goal on 4th & 4 at MIZ 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00MIZBeau Pribula 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–17
- Q4 5:07MIZAhmad Hardy 3 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)17–17
- Q4 10:31AUBAlex McPherson 22 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q3 0:35AUBOmar Mabson II 1 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)10–14
- Q2 10:21MIZAhmad Hardy 2 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)10–7
- Q1 1:44MIZRobert Meyer 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:54AUBJackson Arnold 1 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1684, MIZ Elo 1788 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB +1.8 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MIZ | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.9 (#12) | CORE overall | +13.6 (#30) |
| +5 / -15 | offense / defense | +2 / -12 |
| 2.45 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 1.57 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →