Missouri
SEC· Elo 1788
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT1 | OT2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 23 |
| AUB | 7 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (AUB Elo 1684, MIZ Elo 1788) plus home-field advantage. That projects AUB +1.8 (45% to win), essentially in line with the market.
AUB up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Missouri 23, Auburn 17.
Yes — the model's pick (MIZ) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIZ pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jackson Arnold pass complete to Perry Thompson for 34 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST down
Beau Pribula pass intercepted Kayin Lee return for no gain to the AUB 7
Jeremiah Cobb run for 41 yds to the MIZ 26 for a 1ST down
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