Mississippi State vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSSTTeam statsFLA
- Q4 2:00MSSTDavon Booth 2 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)21–23
- Q4 6:49FLATrey Smack 53 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q4 11:57MSSTDavon Booth 2 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)14–20
- Q4 13:41FLAKD Daniels 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)7–20
- Q2 3:08FLATrey Smack 54 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 14:15FLAJadan Baugh 19 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)7–10
- Q1 8:55FLATrey Smack 24 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:18MSSTKamario Taylor 2 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBlake Shapen 24/36, 324 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDavon Booth 22 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrenen Thompson 7 REC, 155 YDS
- PassDJ Lagway 20/34, 280 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJadan Baugh 23 CAR, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- RecVernell Brown III 5 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:00MSST +40%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
- Q4 0:00FLA +35%
D. Lagway takes a knee
- Q4 1:38FLA +33%
Tommy Doman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the MSST 28
- Q4 1:32MSST +31%
Blake Shapen run for 18 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST down
- Q2 14:15FLA +18%
Jadan Baugh run for 19 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
- Q1 12:18MSST +17%
Kamario Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Florida?
Mississippi State 21, Florida 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FLA) was correct.
| MSST | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 468 | Total yards | 452 |
| 324 | Passing yards | 280 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 172 |
| 22 | First downs | 24 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/36 | Comp/Att | 20/34 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 7-60 |
| 30:05 | Possession | 29:55 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:00MSSTDavon Booth 2 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)21–23
- Q4 6:49FLATrey Smack 53 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q4 11:57MSSTDavon Booth 2 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)14–20
- Q4 13:41FLAKD Daniels 1 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)7–20
- Q2 3:08FLATrey Smack 54 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 14:15FLAJadan Baugh 19 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)7–10
- Q1 8:55FLATrey Smack 24 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:18MSSTKamario Taylor 2 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1639, MSST Elo 1494 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA -8.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida leads 36–19–2 · Florida has won 3 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| MSST | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.1 (#64) | CORE overall | +3.5 (#59) |
| -1 / -1 | offense / defense | +0 / -3 |
| 2.07 | points / drive | 1.68 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →