Ben Hill Griffin StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| FLA | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 23 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FLA 1639
MSST 1494
Projected spread
FLA -8.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
FLA
73% to win
Market spread
FLA -9.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
73%
FLA · market 75%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FLA Elo 1639, MSST Elo 1494) plus home-field advantage. That projects FLA -8.2 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FLA (top)MSST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FLA 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- FLA pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. MSST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge MSST.
- MSST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. FLA pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge FLA.
- MSST rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. FLA rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge MSST.
Drive-by-drive
MSST 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →FLA 5/12 scoring drives
MSSTTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
FLAFG11 pl, 58 yds· own 35Q1
MSSTPUNT8 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FLA up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
77%
FLA went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Florida?
Mississippi State 21, Florida 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FLA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had FLA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.