Minnesota vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsORE
- Q4 11:09OREJ. Harris run for 12 yds, for a TD (A. Sappington KICK)13–42
- Q3 2:52OREJeremiah McClellan 13 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)13–35
- Q3 8:17MINND. Lindsey pass to J. Tracy for 10 yds, for a TD (B. Denaburg KICK)13–28
- Q2 0:37OREKenyon Sadiq 3 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)6–28
- Q2 2:25MINNBrady Denaburg 26 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 9:31ORENoah Whittington 40 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–21
- Q2 11:39MINNBrady Denaburg 46 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 7:23OREJordon Davison 39 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:48OREJordon Davison 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDrake Lindsey 19/32, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDarius Taylor 10 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecDarius Taylor 4 REC, 40 YDS
- PassDante Moore 27/30, 306 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNoah Whittington 8 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKenyon Sadiq 8 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Oregon?
Minnesota 13, Oregon 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| MINN | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 200 | Total yards | 510 |
| 138 | Passing yards | 331 |
| 62 | Rushing yards | 179 |
| 13 | First downs | 27 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 6-9 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 19/33 | Comp/Att | 30/33 |
| 4.2 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-25 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 30:24 | Possession | 29:36 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:29 ORE punt on 4th & 3 at ORE 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:09OREJ. Harris run for 12 yds, for a TD (A. Sappington KICK)13–42
- Q3 2:52OREJeremiah McClellan 13 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)13–35
- Q3 8:17MINND. Lindsey pass to J. Tracy for 10 yds, for a TD (B. Denaburg KICK)13–28
- Q2 0:37OREKenyon Sadiq 3 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Gage Hurych Kick)6–28
- Q2 2:25MINNBrady Denaburg 26 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 9:31ORENoah Whittington 40 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)3–21
- Q2 11:39MINNBrady Denaburg 46 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 7:23OREJordon Davison 39 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:48OREJordon Davison 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 2050, MINN Elo 1514 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -23.8 (93% to win) — 2.7 points clear of MINN's market line of -26.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MINN | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.1 (#96) | CORE overall | +34.6 (#4) |
| -7 / +3 | offense / defense | +19 / -16 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 3.09 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →