Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith StadiumConference gameClosing line: WKU -13.5 · WKU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 0 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 26 |
| WKU | 7 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
Team stats
MTSUthis game · better side highlightedWKU
541
Total yards
642389
Passing yards
371152
Rushing yards
27120
First downs
297-15 · 47%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WKU 1386
MTSU 1134
Projected spread
WKU -12.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
WKU
82% to win
Market spread
WKU -13.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
82%
WKU · market 81%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WKU Elo 1386, MTSU Elo 1134) plus home-field advantage. That projects WKU -12.5 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WKU (top)MTSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WKU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. MTSU pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- MTSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. MTSU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge WKU.
Drive-by-drive
MTSU 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →WKU 6/13 scoring drives
WKUTD16 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q1
MTSUPUNT6 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q1
WKUPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 4Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WKU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
72%
WKU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky?
Middle Tennessee 26, Western Kentucky 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WKU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.