Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MTSUTeam statsWKU
- Q4 1:50WKULa'Vell Wright 37 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)26–42
- Q4 5:45WKUNoah Meyers 1 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)26–35
- Q4 10:46MTSUJacob Hathaway 23 Yd Field Goal 26–28
- Q3 6:50MTSUDJ Taylor 34 Yd Run (Jacob Hathaway Kick)23–28
- Q3 11:59WKURodney Tisdale Jr. 8 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)16–28
- Q3 14:09MTSUMyles Butler 52 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–21
- Q2 2:38WKUNoah Meyers 3 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)10–21
- Q2 6:11MTSUJacob Hathaway 25 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 11:04MTSUAJ Jones 3 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Jacob Hathaway Kick)7–14
- Q2 13:40WKUMatthew Henry 22 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:29WKULa'Vell Wright 3 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MTSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WKU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 5.1
- PassRoman Gagliano 25/42, 389 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRoman Gagliano 14 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecMyles Butler 7 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRodney Tisdale Jr. 29/41, 371 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushMarvis Parrish 12 CAR, 102 YDS
- RecMatthew Henry 7 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky?
Middle Tennessee 26, Western Kentucky 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
| MTSU | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 541 | Total yards | 642 |
| 389 | Passing yards | 371 |
| 152 | Rushing yards | 271 |
| 20 | First downs | 29 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 25/42 | Comp/Att | 29/41 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-75 | Penalties | 4-32 |
| 26:12 | Possession | 33:48 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:16 WKU punt on 4th & 2 at MTSU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:50WKULa'Vell Wright 37 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)26–42
- Q4 5:45WKUNoah Meyers 1 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)26–35
- Q4 10:46MTSUJacob Hathaway 23 Yd Field Goal 26–28
- Q3 6:50MTSUDJ Taylor 34 Yd Run (Jacob Hathaway Kick)23–28
- Q3 11:59WKURodney Tisdale Jr. 8 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)16–28
- Q3 14:09MTSUMyles Butler 52 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–21
- Q2 2:38WKUNoah Meyers 3 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)10–21
- Q2 6:11MTSUJacob Hathaway 25 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 11:04MTSUAJ Jones 3 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Jacob Hathaway Kick)7–14
- Q2 13:40WKUMatthew Henry 22 Yd pass from Rodney Tisdale Jr. (John Cannon Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:29WKULa'Vell Wright 3 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WKU Elo 1386, MTSU Elo 1134 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WKU -12.5 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWestern Kentucky leads 12–6 · Western Kentucky has won 7 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| MTSU | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.9 (#113) | CORE overall | -6.3 (#83) |
| -5 / +11 | offense / defense | -6 / +0 |
| 1.93 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.66 | allowed / drive | 1.79 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →