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Michigan vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 6, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| OU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OU 1650
MICH 1771
Projected spread
OU +2.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
MICH
57% to win
Market spread
OU -3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MICH
5.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
43%
OU · market 62%
Our model blends Elo ratings (OU Elo 1650, MICH Elo 1771) plus home-field advantage. That projects OU +2.4 (43% to win) — 5.9 points of value on MICH versus the market line of -3.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
OU (top)MICH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: OU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MICH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedOU
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.1044%
Success rate
40%1.17
Explosiveness
1.253.64
Pts / opportunity
3.7777%
Power success
64%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.0042%
Success rate allowed
32%1.13
Explosiveness allowed
1.3217%
Havoc rate
23%18%
Stuff rate
29%Key matchups · Pro
- MICH rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. OU rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge MICH.
- MICH pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. OU pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge MICH.
- OU rush offense (0.00 PPA) vs. MICH rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge MICH.
Drive-by-drive
MICH 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →OU 4/11 scoring drives
OUTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MICHPUNT5 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q1
OUPUNT4 pl, 35 yds· own 6Q1
MICHPUNT7 pl, 50 yds· own 12Q1
OUINT2 pl, 18 yds· own 20Q1
MICHPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 38Q1
OUPUNT8 pl, 25 yds· own 23Q2
MICHMISS13 pl, 72 yds· own 14Q2
OUTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
MICHEND1 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q2
MICHTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
OUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
MICHPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 26Q3
OUTD5 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q3
MICHFUM3 pl, -5 yds· own 17Q3
MICHFG4 pl, 8 yds· opp 31Q3
OUPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 7Q3
MICHFG8 pl, 60 yds· own 23Q3
OUMISS11 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q3
MICHPUNT5 pl, 8 yds· own 24Q4
OUFG16 pl, 78 yds· own 19Q4
MICHDOWNS6 pl, 24 yds· own 26Q4
OUEND1 pl, -1 yds· midfieldQ4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
OU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
85%
OU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Oklahoma?
Michigan 13, Oklahoma 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MICH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MICH pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.