Michigan vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MICHTeam statsOU
- Q4 1:44OUTate Sandell 21 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q3 1:24MICHDominic Zvada 35 Yd Field Goal 13–21
- Q3 6:33MICHDominic Zvada 42 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q3 10:12OUJohn Mateer 10 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)7–21
- Q3 14:49MICHJustice Haynes 75 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–14
- Q2 0:22OUJohn Mateer 2 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:00OUDeion Burks 9 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MICH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassBryce Underwood 9/24, 142 YDS
- RushJustice Haynes 19 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonaven McCulley 3 REC, 91 YDS
- PassJohn Mateer 21/34, 270 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJohn Mateer 19 CAR, 74 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDeion Burks 7 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 14:49MICH +18%
Justice Haynes run for 75 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)
- Q1 10:00OU +18%
John Mateer pass complete to Deion Burks for 9 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
- Q4 1:44OU +17%
Tate Sandell 21 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:22OU +17%
John Mateer run for 2 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
- Q3 10:12OU +17%
John Mateer run for 10 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
- Q3 1:24MICH +12%
Dominic Zvada 35 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Oklahoma?
Michigan 13, Oklahoma 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MICH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MICH | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 288 | Total yards | 408 |
| 142 | Passing yards | 270 |
| 146 | Rushing yards | 138 |
| 12 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 9/24 | Comp/Att | 21/34 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-32 | Penalties | 5-48 |
| 27:48 | Possession | 32:12 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:56 MICH punt on 4th & 14 at OU 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:44OUTate Sandell 21 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q3 1:24MICHDominic Zvada 35 Yd Field Goal 13–21
- Q3 6:33MICHDominic Zvada 42 Yd Field Goal 10–21
- Q3 10:12OUJohn Mateer 10 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)7–21
- Q3 14:49MICHJustice Haynes 75 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–14
- Q2 0:22OUJohn Mateer 2 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:00OUDeion Burks 9 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1650, MICH Elo 1771 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU +2.4 (45% to win) — 5.9 points clear of MICH's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MICH | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.4 (#22) | CORE overall | +17.8 (#21) |
| +11 / -6 | offense / defense | -2 / -19 |
| 2.70 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 1.97 | allowed / drive | 1.22 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →