| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 0 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 24 |
| NU | 0 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 22 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NU Elo 1516, MICH Elo 1809) on a neutral field. That projects NU +11.7 (19% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MICH up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Michigan 24, Northwestern 22.
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MICH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 4th quarter.
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass intercepted by #6 R.Fitzgerald at NU20 #6 R.Fitzgerald return 2 yards to the NU22 (#51 G.Crippen; #4 A.Marsh)
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 A.Marsh rush right for 10 yards loss to the NU47 fumbled by #4 A.Marsh at NU45 forced by #4 A.Saka recovered by NU #33 B.Brus at NU47 #33 B.Brus return 6 yards to the U-M47 (#53 J.Guarnera)
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