Michigan vs. Michigan State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MICHTeam statsMSU
- Q4 0:07MSUMichael Masunas 21 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)31–20
- Q4 2:48MICHJordan Marshall 56 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)31–13
- Q4 12:34MSUBrandon Tullis 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–13
- Q3 3:08MICHJustice Haynes 14 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)24–7
- Q3 11:50MICHJustice Haynes 5 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–7
- Q2 8:24MSUAidan Chiles 1 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:58MICHBryce Underwood 13 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:07MICHDominic Zvada 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassBryce Underwood 8/17, 86 YDS
- RushJustice Haynes 26 CAR, 152 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAndrew Marsh 3 REC, 54 YDS
- PassAidan Chiles 14/28, 130 YDS
- RushMakhi Frazier 14 CAR, 109 YDS
- RecNick Marsh 6 REC, 75 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMICH up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:24MSU +10%
#2 A.Chiles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 11:50MICH +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 3:58MICH +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood rush left for 13 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 3:08MICH +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Haynes rush left for 14 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Michigan State?
Michigan 31, Michigan State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
| MICH | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 362 | Total yards | 305 |
| 86 | Passing yards | 190 |
| 276 | Rushing yards | 115 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 8/17 | Comp/Att | 19/34 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-61 | Penalties | 12-105 |
| 30:33 | Possession | 29:27 |
Costliest call
Q1 10:07 MICH field goal on 4th & 3 at MSU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:07MSUMichael Masunas 21 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)31–20
- Q4 2:48MICHJordan Marshall 56 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)31–13
- Q4 12:34MSUBrandon Tullis 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–13
- Q3 3:08MICHJustice Haynes 14 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)24–7
- Q3 11:50MICHJustice Haynes 5 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)17–7
- Q2 8:24MSUAidan Chiles 1 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)10–7
- Q1 3:58MICHBryce Underwood 13 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:07MICHDominic Zvada 21 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSU Elo 1348, MICH Elo 1839 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSU +17.2 (14% to win) — 3.7 points clear of MICH's market line of +13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 75–38–5 · Michigan has won 4 straight · 31% have been one-possession games
| MICH | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.4 (#22) | CORE overall | -8.6 (#91) |
| +11 / -6 | offense / defense | -4 / +4 |
| 2.70 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 1.97 | allowed / drive | 2.64 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →