Michigan State vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSUTeam statsMINN
- OT 0:00MINNDrake Lindsey 3 Yd Run 20–23
- OT 0:00MSUMartin Connington 36 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q4 0:29MINNDrake Lindsey 2 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)17–17
- Q4 1:52MSUBrandon Tullis 1 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)17–10
- Q4 14:16MSUMartin Connington 34 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q3 14:05MSURodney Bullard Jr. 71 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)7–10
- Q2 9:10MINNBrady Denaburg 30 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 2:24MINNFame Ijeboi 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAlessio Milivojevic 20/28, 311 YDS, 1 TD
- RushElijah Tau-Tolliver 11 CAR, 127 YDS
- RecRodney Bullard Jr. 4 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDrake Lindsey 26/39, 197 YDS
- RushFame Ijeboi 17 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJavon Tracy 7 REC, 61 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:29MINN +87%
#5 D.Lindsey rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
- OT 0:00MINN +80%
#5 D.Lindsey rush left for 3 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
- Q4 0:24MSU +76%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU19, for 4 yards to the MSU29, out of bounds at MSU29
- OT 0:00MINN +41%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short left to #3 R.Bullard Jr. thrown to MINN00
- Q4 1:52MSU +33%
No Huddle #7 B.Tullis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MINN00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 2:44MSU +33%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 85 yards gain to the MINN03 (#3 K.Perich), 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan State vs. Minnesota?
Michigan State 20, Minnesota 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
| MSU | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 467 | Total yards | 301 |
| 311 | Passing yards | 197 |
| 156 | Rushing yards | 104 |
| 19 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/28 | Comp/Att | 26/39 |
| 11.1 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-96 | Penalties | 2-8 |
| 34:34 | Possession | 25:26 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:50 MINN punt on 4th & 1 at MINN 19. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00MINNDrake Lindsey 3 Yd Run 20–23
- OT 0:00MSUMartin Connington 36 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q4 0:29MINNDrake Lindsey 2 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)17–17
- Q4 1:52MSUBrandon Tullis 1 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)17–10
- Q4 14:16MSUMartin Connington 34 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q3 14:05MSURodney Bullard Jr. 71 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Martin Connington Kick)7–10
- Q2 9:10MINNBrady Denaburg 30 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 2:24MINNFame Ijeboi 1 Yd Run (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1515, MSU Elo 1364 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN -8.4 (72% to win) — 3.9 points clear of MINN's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan State leads 30–20 · Minnesota has won 3 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| MSU | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.6 (#91) | CORE overall | -10.1 (#96) |
| -4 / +4 | offense / defense | -7 / +3 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 2.64 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →