Huntington Bank StadiumConference gameClosing line: MINN -4.5 · MSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 20 |
| MINN | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 23 |
Team stats
MSUthis game · better side highlightedMINN
467
Total yards
301311
Passing yards
197156
Rushing yards
10419
First downs
18Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MINN 1515
MSU 1364
Projected spread
MINN -8.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
MINN
73% to win
Market spread
MINN -4.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MINN
3.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
73%
MINN · market 63%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MINN Elo 1515, MSU Elo 1364) plus home-field advantage. That projects MINN -8.4 (73% to win) — 3.9 points of value on MINN versus the market line of -4.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MINN (top)MSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MINN 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- MINN rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. MSU rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MSU.
- MINN pass offense (0.22 PPA) vs. MSU pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge MSU.
- MSU rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. MINN rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge MINN.
Drive-by-drive
MSU 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MINN 4/12 scoring drives
MINNPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
MSUMISS11 pl, 51 yds· own 21Q1
MINNPUNT3 pl, 22 yds· own 28Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MINN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
MINN went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan State vs. Minnesota?
Michigan State 20, Minnesota 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MINN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.