| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 3 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 38 |
| PITT | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (PITT Elo 1691, MIA Elo 1907) plus home-field advantage. That projects PITT +6.2 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MIA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Miami 38, Pittsburgh 7.
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(06:18) Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass intercepted by #12 C.Brookins at Pitt15, End Of Play
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep middle to #5 R.Williams Jr. caught at Miami37, for 38 yards to the Miami37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short left to #11 C.Lee caught at Pitt40, for 31 yards to the Miami40 QB hurried by #13 B.Fitzgerald and #18 A.Blount (#7 Z.Poyser), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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