Miami vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsPITT
- Q4 0:41MIACJ Daniels 33 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Bert Auburn Kick)38–7
- Q3 4:28MIACharMar Brown 9 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)31–7
- Q3 9:29MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 4 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)24–7
- Q2 1:55MIAMalachi Toney 22 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:07MIAElija Lofton 9 Yd pass from Malachi Toney (Carter Davis Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:20PITTJustin Holmes 6 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)3–7
- Q1 4:31MIACarter Davis 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PITT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.1 vs 3rd & 5.8
- PassCarson Beck 23/29, 267 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushGirard Pringle Jr. 10 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecMalachi Toney 13 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMason Heintschel 22/32, 199 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJa'Kyrian Turner 10 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecRaphael Williams Jr. 5 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:07MIA +20%
Shotgun #10 M.Toney pass complete short right to #9 E.Lofton caught at Pitt00, for 9 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:20PITT +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #88 J.Holmes caught at Miami05, for 6 yards to the Miami00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 1:55MIA +16%
Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep left to #10 M.Toney caught at Pitt00, for 22 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 9:29MIA +7%
Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 4:31MIA +7%
#38 C.Davis field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Pittsburgh?
Miami 38, Pittsburgh 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| MIA | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 416 | Total yards | 229 |
| 276 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 140 | Rushing yards | 30 |
| 28 | First downs | 11 |
| 5-8 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 24/32 | Comp/Att | 22/33 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 1.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-28 | Penalties | 9-88 |
| 35:55 | Possession | 24:05 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:33 MIA punt on 4th & 4 at PITT 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.96 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:41MIACJ Daniels 33 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Bert Auburn Kick)38–7
- Q3 4:28MIACharMar Brown 9 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)31–7
- Q3 9:29MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 4 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)24–7
- Q2 1:55MIAMalachi Toney 22 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:07MIAElija Lofton 9 Yd pass from Malachi Toney (Carter Davis Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:20PITTJustin Holmes 6 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)3–7
- Q1 4:31MIACarter Davis 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1691, MIA Elo 1907 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT +6.2 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami leads 30–12–1 · 23% have been one-possession games
| MIA | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| +31.1 (#6) | CORE overall | +16.8 (#23) |
| +14 / -18 | offense / defense | +4 / -13 |
| 2.85 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 1.31 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →