Miami vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIATeam statsMISS
- Q4 0:18MIACarson Beck 3 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)31–27
- Q4 3:13MISSDae'Quan Wright 24 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Trinidad Chambliss Pass to Caleb Odom for Two-Point Conversion)24–27
- Q4 5:04MIAMalachi Toney 36 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)24–19
- Q4 7:00MISSLucas Carneiro 21 Yd Field Goal 17–19
- Q3 0:22MISSLucas Carneiro 54 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q2 0:11MISSLucas Carneiro 58 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 2:18MIAKeelan Marion 52 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)17–10
- Q2 4:38MISSLucas Carneiro 42 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 7:09MIACharMar Brown 4 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:50MISSKewan Lacy 73 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:22MIACarter Davis 38 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassCarson Beck 23/37, 268 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMark Fletcher Jr. 22 CAR, 133 YDS
- RecKeelan Marion 7 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 23/37, 277 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKewan Lacy 11 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDe'Zhaun Stribling 5 REC, 77 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami vs. Ole Miss?
Miami 31, Ole Miss 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MISS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIA | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 459 | Total yards | 398 |
| 268 | Passing yards | 277 |
| 191 | Rushing yards | 121 |
| 28 | First downs | 23 |
| 11-19 | 3rd down | 2-10 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/37 | Comp/Att | 23/39 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-74 | Penalties | 4-34 |
| 41:22 | Possession | 18:38 |
- Q4 0:18MIACarson Beck 3 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)31–27
- Q4 3:13MISSDae'Quan Wright 24 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Trinidad Chambliss Pass to Caleb Odom for Two-Point Conversion)24–27
- Q4 5:04MIAMalachi Toney 36 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)24–19
- Q4 7:00MISSLucas Carneiro 21 Yd Field Goal 17–19
- Q3 0:22MISSLucas Carneiro 54 Yd Field Goal 17–16
- Q2 0:11MISSLucas Carneiro 58 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 2:18MIAKeelan Marion 52 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)17–10
- Q2 4:38MISSLucas Carneiro 42 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 7:09MIACharMar Brown 4 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:50MISSKewan Lacy 73 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:22MIACarter Davis 38 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 2011, MIA Elo 2004 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects MISS -0.3 (52% to win) — 3.3 points clear of MISS's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#120 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #46 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| MIA | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +31.1 (#6) | CORE overall | +19.4 (#16) |
| +14 / -18 | offense / defense | +16 / -4 |
| 2.85 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 1.31 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →