| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 3 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 31 |
| MISS | 0 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MISS Elo 2011, MIA Elo 2004) on a neutral field. That projects MISS -0.3 (51% to win) — 3.3 points of value on MISS versus the market line of +3.
MIA up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Miami 31, Ole Miss 27.
No — the model picked MISS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MISS pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 K.Lacy rush middle for 73 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:50, 1ST DOWN #17 L.Carneiro kick attempt good (H: #33 O.Bird, LS: #93 C.Short)
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete deep middle to #0 K.Marion caught at OM 13, for 52 yards to the OM 00 QB hurried by #4 S.Perkins TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:18, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)
(05:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short left to #10 M.Toney caught at OM 39, for 36 yards to the OM 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:04, 1ST DOWN #38 C.Davis kick attempt good (H: #94 D.Joyce, LS: #46 A.Booker)
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