Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
M-OHTeam statsWMU
- Q4 6:43M-OHCole Weaver 6 Yd pass from Henry Hesson (Dom Dzioban Kick)13–23
- Q3 13:16WMUJalen Buckley 64 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)6–23
- Q2 0:50WMUPalmer Domschke 50 Yd Field Goal 6–16
- Q2 13:43WMUPalmer Domschke 31 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q1 6:51WMUPalmer Domschke 27 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q1 11:40M-OHJordan Brunson 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban PAT failed)6–7
- Q1 13:33WMUJalen Buckley 67 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- M-OH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassHenry Hesson 7/20, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJordan Brunson 14 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKam Perry 7 REC, 101 YDS
- PassBroc Lowry 8/13, 111 YDS
- RushJalen Buckley 19 CAR, 193 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMichael Brescia 2 REC, 47 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWMU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:33WMU +17%
Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 67 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:50WMU +13%
#20 P.Domschke field goal attempt from 50 yards GOOD
- Q3 13:16WMU +12%
Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 64 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 13:43WMU +9%
#20 P.Domschke field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD
- Q4 9:15M-OH +9%
Shotgun #0 K.Reynolds rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA22 (#10 S.Saipaia)
- Q1 6:51M-OH +6%
#20 P.Domschke field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan?
Miami (OH) 13, Western Michigan 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked M-OH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| M-OH | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 272 | Total yards | 397 |
| 199 | Passing yards | 111 |
| 73 | Rushing yards | 286 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 14/38 | Comp/Att | 8/13 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-50 | Penalties | 4-37 |
| 24:43 | Possession | 35:17 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:04 M-OH go for it on 4th & 10 at M-OH 34. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:43M-OHCole Weaver 6 Yd pass from Henry Hesson (Dom Dzioban Kick)13–23
- Q3 13:16WMUJalen Buckley 64 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)6–23
- Q2 0:50WMUPalmer Domschke 50 Yd Field Goal 6–16
- Q2 13:43WMUPalmer Domschke 31 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q1 6:51WMUPalmer Domschke 27 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q1 11:40M-OHJordan Brunson 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban PAT failed)6–7
- Q1 13:33WMUJalen Buckley 67 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WMU Elo 1414, M-OH Elo 1459 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects WMU +1.8 (46% to win) — 4.3 points clear of M-OH's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami (OH) leads 24–21–1 · 35% have been one-possession games
| M-OH | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.0 (#81) | CORE overall | +1.8 (#62) |
| -7 / -1 | offense / defense | -5 / -7 |
| 1.96 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →