Memphis vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MEMTeam statsTROY
- Q4 3:49MEMMakari Bodiford 8 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)28–7
- Q2 1:45MEMSutton Smith 50 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)21–7
- Q2 8:21MEMBrady Kluse 18 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:02TROYTaleeq Robbins 15 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:34MEMSutton Smith 5 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TROY played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.9 vs 3rd & 7.1
- PassBrendon Lewis 17/27, 213 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSutton Smith 18 CAR, 113 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCortez Braham Jr. 4 REC, 69 YDS
- PassTucker Kilcrease 10/29, 65 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJordan Lovett 8 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecRoman Mothershed 8 REC, 58 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:45MEM +17%
Sutton Smith run for 50 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
- Q1 10:34MEM +16%
Sutton Smith run for 5 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Memphis vs. Troy?
Memphis 28, Troy 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
| MEM | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 430 | Total yards | 112 |
| 213 | Passing yards | 72 |
| 217 | Rushing yards | 40 |
| 22 | First downs | 12 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 17/27 | Comp/Att | 12/32 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 2.3 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 36:55 | Possession | 23:05 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:00 MEM punt on 4th & 4 at TROY 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:49MEMMakari Bodiford 8 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)28–7
- Q2 1:45MEMSutton Smith 50 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)21–7
- Q2 8:21MEMBrady Kluse 18 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:02TROYTaleeq Robbins 15 Yd Fumble Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:34MEMSutton Smith 5 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1472, MEM Elo 1621 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY +3.6 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MEM | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.0 (#61) | CORE overall | -16.6 (#116) |
| +4 / +2 | offense / defense | -13 / +4 |
| 2.73 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →