Memphis
2-0·American Athletic· Elo 1621
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 7 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
| TROY | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TROY Elo 1472, MEM Elo 1621) plus home-field advantage. That projects TROY +3.6 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MEM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Memphis 28, Troy 7.
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MEM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
B. Lewis sacked by D. Smith for -6 yds,B. Lewis fumbled, recovered by MEM T. Robbins,for a TD (S. Taylor Renfroe KICK)
Tucker Kilcrease pass intercepted Jalen Bell return for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 9
Sutton Smith run for 50 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
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