Marshall vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MRSHTeam statsAPP
- Q4 2:02APPDominic De Freitas 23 Yd Field Goal 24–26
- Q3 5:29MRSHLorcan Quinn 25 Yd Field Goal 24–23
- Q3 9:27APPJaquari Lewis 5 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)21–23
- Q2 0:53APPDavid Larkins 19 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)21–16
- Q2 8:14MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 4 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)21–9
- Q2 11:34MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 16 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)14–9
- Q2 13:04APPJaquari Lewis 18 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–9
- Q1 1:20MRSHJo'Shon Barbie 5 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:38APPDominic De Freitas 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 13/21, 146 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJo'Shon Barbie 10 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDemarcus Lacey 12 REC, 134 YDS
- PassJJ Kohl 19/27, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJaquari Lewis 33 CAR, 175 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSam Mbake 7 REC, 39 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMRSH up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:50APP +41%
Kneel down by #17 J.Kohl at APP32 for loss of 7 yards
- Q4 1:55MRSH +34%
Shotgun #1 Z.Turner pass complete short right to #0 D.Tamarez caught at MAR30, for 5 yards to the MAR30 (#6 E.Floyd)
- Q4 2:02APP +33%
#90 D.De Freitas field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD
- Q3 9:27APP +25%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Lewis rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MAR00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 5:26APP +22%
Shotgun #22 J.Lewis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MAR37 (#7 J.Parker; #2 D.Sweeting)
- Q2 11:34MRSH +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Del Rio-Wilson rush middle for 16 yards gain to the APP00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. App State?
Marshall 24, App State 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MRSH | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 438 | Total yards | 276 |
| 200 | Passing yards | 134 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 142 |
| 23 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 21/30 | Comp/Att | 19/27 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 30:09 | Possession | 29:51 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:09 APP punt on 4th & 1 at APP 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:02APPDominic De Freitas 23 Yd Field Goal 24–26
- Q3 5:29MRSHLorcan Quinn 25 Yd Field Goal 24–23
- Q3 9:27APPJaquari Lewis 5 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)21–23
- Q2 0:53APPDavid Larkins 19 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)21–16
- Q2 8:14MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 4 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)21–9
- Q2 11:34MRSHCarlos Del Rio-Wilson 16 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)14–9
- Q2 13:04APPJaquari Lewis 18 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)7–9
- Q1 1:20MRSHJo'Shon Barbie 5 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:38APPDominic De Freitas 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1248, MRSH Elo 1499 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects APP +7.6 (32% to win) — 3.6 points clear of MRSH's market line of +4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesApp State leads 7–5 · 42% have been one-possession games
| MRSH | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.7 (#71) | CORE overall | -18.4 (#121) |
| +0 / +3 | offense / defense | -10 / +9 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 1.87 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →