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Marshall vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Nov 22, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 7 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| APP | 3 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 26 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
APP 1248
MRSH 1499
Projected spread
APP +7.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
MRSH
71% to win
Market spread
APP +4
sportsbook line
Model edge
MRSH
3.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
29%
APP · market 37%
Our model blends Elo ratings (APP Elo 1248, MRSH Elo 1499) plus home-field advantage. That projects APP +7.6 (29% to win) — 3.6 points of value on MRSH versus the market line of +4.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
APP (top)MRSH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: APP 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MRSH2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedAPP
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.1245%
Success rate
42%1.16
Explosiveness
1.183.89
Pts / opportunity
3.5063%
Power success
69%Defense
0.16
PPA allowed / play
0.1839%
Success rate allowed
45%1.42
Explosiveness allowed
1.1916%
Havoc rate
17%22%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- APP pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MRSH pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge MRSH.
- MRSH pass offense (0.38 PPA) vs. APP pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge MRSH.
- APP rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. MRSH rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge APP.
Drive-by-drive
MRSH 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →APP 5/13 scoring drives
MRSHPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 24Q1
APPPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 17Q1
MRSHPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 27Q1
APPFG9 pl, 52 yds· own 34Q1
MRSHINT7 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q1
APPDOWNS4 pl, -6 yds· own 47Q1
MRSHTD8 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q1
APPTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
MRSHTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
APPPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2
MRSHTD6 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2
APPPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2
MRSHPUNT4 pl, 25 yds· own 18Q2
APPTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
MRSHEND2 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2
APPTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
MRSHFG9 pl, 64 yds· own 29Q3
APPPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3
MRSHMISS8 pl, 59 yds· own 31Q3
APPPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q4
MRSHPUNT4 pl, 24 yds· own 32Q4
APPPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q4
MRSHFUM7 pl, 39 yds· own 1Q4
APPFG8 pl, 35 yds· opp 40Q4
MRSHFUM6 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q4
APPEND4 pl, -34 yds· own 39Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MRSH up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
53%
MRSH went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Marshall vs. App State?
Marshall 24, App State 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MRSH pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.