LSU vs. Clemson: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsCLEM
- Q4 12:18LSUTrey'Dez Green 8 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)17–10
- Q3 8:59LSUCaden Durham 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)10–10
- Q2 4:36CLEMAdam Randall 1 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)3–10
- Q2 10:53LSUDamian Ramos 52 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:57CLEMNolan Hauser 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CLEM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassGarrett Nussmeier 28/38, 232 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCaden Durham 17 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAaron Anderson 6 REC, 99 YDS
- PassCade Klubnik 19/38, 230 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAdam Randall 5 CAR, 16 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBryant Wesco Jr. 4 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:55LSU +57%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 14
- Q1 10:25CLEM +44%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for 3 yds to the LSU 40
- Q4 12:18LSU +32%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 8 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q3 8:59LSU +26%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
- Q2 4:36CLEM +21%
Adam Randall run for 1 yd for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
- Q4 1:34CLEM +19%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 17 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Clemson?
LSU 17, Clemson 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CLEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LSU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 356 | Total yards | 261 |
| 248 | Passing yards | 230 |
| 108 | Rushing yards | 31 |
| 25 | First downs | 13 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 29/39 | Comp/Att | 19/38 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 1.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-45 | Penalties | 6-57 |
| 37:10 | Possession | 22:50 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:26 LSU punt on 4th & 5 at CLEM 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:18LSUTrey'Dez Green 8 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)17–10
- Q3 8:59LSUCaden Durham 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)10–10
- Q2 4:36CLEMAdam Randall 1 Yd Run (Nolan Hauser Kick)3–10
- Q2 10:53LSUDamian Ramos 52 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:57CLEMNolan Hauser 42 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLEM Elo 1704, LSU Elo 1718 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -1.8 (56% to win) — 3.2 points clear of LSU's market line of -5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#86 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #77 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #54 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| LSU | CLEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.1 (#45) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#56) |
| -3 / -11 | offense / defense | +2 / -3 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →