Louisville vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LOUTeam statsSMU
- Q4 6:03SMUShaadie Clayton-Johnson 50 Yd Run (Stone Eby Kick)6–38
- Q4 9:38SMUYamir Knight 6 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)6–31
- Q3 0:48SMUSam Keltner 49 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 1:44LOUCooper Ranvier 29 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 3:25SMUT.J. Harden 5 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)3–21
- Q2 8:53SMUJordan Hudson 7 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)3–14
- Q1 4:15LOUCooper Ranvier 36 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:40SMUKevin Jennings 2 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SMU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LOU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.2 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassDeuce Adams 12/17, 94 YDS
- RushShaun Boykins Jr. 8 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecChris Bell 5 REC, 46 YDS
- PassKevin Jennings 29/37, 303 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTJ Harden 18 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecJordan Hudson 8 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSMU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:12SMU +16%
Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #6 C.Johnson Jr. caught at SMU37, for 10 yards to the LOU49, out of bounds at LOU49, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 10:40SMU +15%
#7 K.Jennings rush right for 2 yards gain to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY LOU Holding declined
- Q2 3:25SMU +8%
Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short left to #27 T.Harden caught at LOU03, for 5 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 4:15LOU +7%
#36 C.Ranvier field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisville vs. SMU?
Louisville 6, SMU 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
| LOU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 228 | Total yards | 485 |
| 100 | Passing yards | 307 |
| 128 | Rushing yards | 178 |
| 12 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 14/20 | Comp/Att | 30/38 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-47 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 24:04 | Possession | 35:56 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:40 LOU punt on 4th & 2 at LOU 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:03SMUShaadie Clayton-Johnson 50 Yd Run (Stone Eby Kick)6–38
- Q4 9:38SMUYamir Knight 6 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)6–31
- Q3 0:48SMUSam Keltner 49 Yd Field Goal 6–24
- Q2 1:44LOUCooper Ranvier 29 Yd Field Goal 6–21
- Q2 3:25SMUT.J. Harden 5 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)3–21
- Q2 8:53SMUJordan Hudson 7 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)3–14
- Q1 4:15LOUCooper Ranvier 36 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:40SMUKevin Jennings 2 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SMU Elo 1782, LOU Elo 1709 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SMU -5.3 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| LOU | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.6 (#18) | CORE overall | +14.6 (#27) |
| +5 / -14 | offense / defense | +9 / -5 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 1.71 | allowed / drive | 1.64 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →