Louisville
7-3·ACC· Elo 1709
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| SMU | 7 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SMU Elo 1782, LOU Elo 1709) plus home-field advantage. That projects SMU -5.3 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
SMU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Louisville 6, SMU 38.
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had SMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(06:08) Shotgun #24 S.Clayton-Johnson rush middle for 50 yards gain to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:03, 1ST DOWN #44 S.Eby kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Collins, LS: #49 N.Akins)
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Allen pass intercepted by #10 T.Polley Jr. at SMU17, End Of Play
(03:34) Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short middle to #82 R.Maryland caught at SMU40, for 17 yards to the SMU50 (#12 K.Perry; #6 S.Clark), 1ST DOWN
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