Louisiana vs. Eastern Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsEMU
- Q4 0:03EMURudy Kessinger 42 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q4 0:47ULZylan Perry 10 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)31–31
- Q4 10:16EMURudy Kessinger 49 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q4 14:55EMUTavierre Dunlap 6 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)24–28
- Q3 5:20ULCourtline Flowers 35 Yd Interception Return (Tony Sterner Kick)24–21
- Q2 1:13EMUJoshua Long 15 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)17–21
- Q2 9:32ULBill Davis 45 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)17–14
- Q2 12:31EMUTavierre Dunlap 2 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:56ULTony Sterner 38 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:07EMUNoah Kim 3 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:32ULZylan Perry 23 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDaniel Beale 20/33, 232 YDS, 2 INT
- RushZylan Perry 15 CAR, 110 YDS, 2 TD
- RecShelton Sampson Jr. 3 REC, 87 YDS
- PassNoah Kim 21/31, 226 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDontae McMillan 19 CAR, 126 YDS
- RecNick Devereaux 4 REC, 76 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:47UL +81%
Zylan Perry run for 10 yds for a TD (Tony Sterner KICK)
- Q4 0:35EMU +65%
Noah Kim pass complete to Dontae McMillan for 7 yds to the EMU 42
- Q1 14:54UL +51%
Zylan Perry run for 6 yds to the UL 31
- Q4 10:16EMU +16%
Rudy Kessinger 49 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:47UL +12%
PENALTY UL Delay Of Game 5 yards from UL29 to UL24. NO PLAY
- Q4 5:05EMU +11%
Shotgun McMillan,Dontae rush right for 0 yards to the EMU33 (Crider,Jaelen) PENALTY EMU Holding (Dahoue,Dodji) 10 yards from EMU33 to EMU23. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. Eastern Michigan?
Louisiana 31, Eastern Michigan 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UL | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 451 | Total yards | 409 |
| 237 | Passing yards | 226 |
| 214 | Rushing yards | 183 |
| 22 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 21/35 | Comp/Att | 21/31 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 6.7 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-85 | Penalties | 8-92 |
| 29:59 | Possession | 30:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:58 EMU punt on 4th & 14 at UL 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:03EMURudy Kessinger 42 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q4 0:47ULZylan Perry 10 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)31–31
- Q4 10:16EMURudy Kessinger 49 Yd Field Goal 24–31
- Q4 14:55EMUTavierre Dunlap 6 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)24–28
- Q3 5:20ULCourtline Flowers 35 Yd Interception Return (Tony Sterner Kick)24–21
- Q2 1:13EMUJoshua Long 15 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)17–21
- Q2 9:32ULBill Davis 45 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)17–14
- Q2 12:31EMUTavierre Dunlap 2 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:56ULTony Sterner 38 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:07EMUNoah Kim 3 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:32ULZylan Perry 23 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (EMU Elo 1220, UL Elo 1367 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects EMU +3.5 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UL | EMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.6 (#126) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#114) |
| -8 / +13 | offense / defense | -3 / +13 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.13 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 2.86 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →