Lamar vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Lamar

00

North Texas

▸0051

Final

DATCU Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LAMA	0	0	0	0	0
UNT	13	24	14	0	51

LAMATeam statsUNT

119Total yards462

88Pass329

31Rush133

8First downs26

3-133rd down7-12

2Turnovers1

26:32Possession33:28

Scoring plays

• Q3 8:41UNTWyatt Young 32 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)0–51
• Q3 11:16UNTKiefer Sibley 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–44
• Q2 0:27UNTEthan Wesloski 0 Yd Fumble Return (Kali Nguma Kick)0–37
• Q2 0:57UNTKali Nguma 28 Yd Field Goal 0–30
• Q2 1:53UNTCameron Dorner 25 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)0–27
• Q2 6:35UNTWyatt Young 5 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)0–20
• Q1 5:46UNTMakenzie McGill II 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–13
• Q1 11:21UNTDrew Mestemaker 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6

How the model called it

Market line

UNT −27.5

Against the number

UNT covered

line UNT −27.5

What the numbers say

• LAMA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 6.3

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

LAMA aheadUNT ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = LAMA ahead, below = UNT ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UNT −27.5

Closing total

63.0

Model line

—

Actual result

LAMA 0 – 51 UNT

Leaders

Lamar

• PassRobert Coleman 13/24, 88 YDS, 1 INT
• RushMajor Bowden 6 CAR, 21 YDS
• RecKyndon Fuselier 4 REC, 45 YDS

North Texas

• PassDrew Mestemaker 24/32, 329 YDS, 3 TD
• RushKiefer Sibley 6 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
• RecCameron Dorner 7 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

23.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

131

Points / snap

0.39

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UNT up 51 entering the 4th quarter. Across 76 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

UNT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEast Tennessee State vs UVA Wise61-0WNicholls vs Southern51-7WTulane vs UAB71-20WMonmouth vs Hampton61-10WNorth Dakota State vs Western Illinois52-7

Fourth downs

15 calls

UNT gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.LAMA 9/9 · UNT 2/4 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Lamar vs. North Texas?

Lamar 0, North Texas 51.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LAMA

UNT

26%

Success rate

49%

-0.22

EPA / pass

0.75

-0.18

EPA / rush

-0.09

28%

Early-down success

47%

28%

Pass success

62%

24%

Rush success

38%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

19%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

25%

56%

Pass rate

46%

9.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.3

LAMA

9.1 yards to go on 3rd down

57 scrimmage snaps

UNT

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

74 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LAMA		UNT
119	Total yards	462
88	Passing yards	329
31	Rushing yards	133
8	First downs	26
3-13	3rd down	7-12
0-1	4th down	1-2
13/27	Comp/Att	24/34
3.3	Yards per pass	9.7
1.1	Yards per rush	3.2
2	Turnovers	1
14-99	Penalties	3-20
26:32	Possession	33:28

Fourth downs

15 calls

LAMA

9/9 with the model

nothing given up

UNT

2/4 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 1:42 UNT punt on 4th & 4 at LAMA 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LAMA 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →UNT 7/12 scoring drives

UNTTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

LAMAPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1

UNTTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

LAMAPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q1

UNTDOWNS13 pl, 53 yds· own 45Q1

LAMAPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 2Q2

UNTTD7 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q2

LAMAPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q2

UNTTD6 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q2

LAMAINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 35Q2

UNTFG4 pl, 7 yds· opp 17Q2

LAMATD2 pl, -22 yds· own 22Q2

LAMAEND2 pl, -6 yds· own 42Q2

LAMAPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 17Q3

UNTTD5 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q3

LAMAPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q3

UNTTD4 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q3

LAMAPUNT5 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q3

UNTPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 39Q3

LAMAPUNT8 pl, 23 yds· own 12Q3

UNTFUM8 pl, 25 yds· own 30Q4

LAMADOWNS5 pl, 18 yds· own 45Q4

UNTPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 37Q4

LAMAPUNT6 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q4

UNTEND2 pl, -5 yds· own 43Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 8:41UNTWyatt Young 32 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)0–51
• Q3 11:16UNTKiefer Sibley 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–44
• Q2 0:27UNTEthan Wesloski 0 Yd Fumble Return (Kali Nguma Kick)0–37
• Q2 0:57UNTKali Nguma 28 Yd Field Goal 0–30
• Q2 1:53UNTCameron Dorner 25 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)0–27
• Q2 6:35UNTWyatt Young 5 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)0–20
• Q1 5:46UNTMakenzie McGill II 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–13
• Q1 11:21UNTDrew Mestemaker 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–6

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →