| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAMA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UNT | 13 | 24 | 14 | 0 | 51 |
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = LAMA ahead, below = UNT ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
UNT up 51 entering the 4th quarter. Across 76 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Lamar 0, North Texas 51.
No — the model picked LAMA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had LAMA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams III
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 46 yds to the LAM 2 for a 1ST down
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 24 yds to the LAM 41 for a 1ST down
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