Kansas vs. Iowa State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KUTeam statsISU
- Q4 1:07ISUAiden Flora 38 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)14–38
- Q3 2:18ISUBenjamin Brahmer 12 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)14–31
- Q3 7:35KUBoden Groen 21 Yd pass from Cole Ballard (Laith Marjan Kick)14–24
- Q3 8:52ISUBrett Eskildsen 20 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–24
- Q3 13:06KULeshon Williams 4 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:43ISUKyle Konrardy 55 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 14:56ISUCarson Hansen 4 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:23ISUBrett Eskildsen 9 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJalon Daniels 13/23, 154 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDaniel Hishaw Jr. 8 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecBoden Groen 5 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRocco Becht 18/23, 241 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCarson Hansen 22 CAR, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrett Eskildsen 6 REC, 73 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsISU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:06KU +11%
Shotgun #4 L.Williams rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:35KU +10%
Boden Groen 21 Yd pass from Cole Ballard (Laith Marjan Kick)
- Q3 8:52ISU +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete deep right to #9 B.Eskildsen caught at KAN00, for 20 yards to the KAN00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 2:18ISU +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete short middle to #18 B.Brahmer caught at KAN00, for 12 yards to the KAN00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas vs. Iowa State?
Kansas 14, Iowa State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.
| KU | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 323 | Total yards | 462 |
| 191 | Passing yards | 241 |
| 132 | Rushing yards | 221 |
| 17 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-9 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 16/29 | Comp/Att | 18/23 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 6.3 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 20:52 | Possession | 39:08 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:43 ISU field goal on 4th & 4 at KU 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:07ISUAiden Flora 38 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)14–38
- Q3 2:18ISUBenjamin Brahmer 12 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)14–31
- Q3 7:35KUBoden Groen 21 Yd pass from Cole Ballard (Laith Marjan Kick)14–24
- Q3 8:52ISUBrett Eskildsen 20 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–24
- Q3 13:06KULeshon Williams 4 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:43ISUKyle Konrardy 55 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 14:56ISUCarson Hansen 4 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:23ISUBrett Eskildsen 9 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ISU Elo 1600, KU Elo 1554 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ISU -4.2 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesKansas leads 52–46–6 · 35% have been one-possession games
| KU | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.9 (#57) | CORE overall | +6.4 (#51) |
| +10 / +6 | offense / defense | +2 / -4 |
| 2.34 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →