| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KU | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| ISU | 7 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ISU Elo 1600, KU Elo 1554) plus home-field advantage. That projects ISU -4.2 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
ISU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kansas 14, Iowa State 38.
Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ISU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(01:13) Shotgun #21 A.Flora rush left for 38 yards gain to the KAN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:07, 1ST DOWN #97 K.Konrardy kick attempt good (H: #80 T.Perkins, LS: #46 D.Clausen) PENALTY #97 K.Konrardy kick attempt good (H: #80 T.Perkins, LS: #46 D.Clausen) PENALTY KAN Illegal Substitution declined
(07:11) Shotgun #6 J.Daniels pass intercepted by #31 M.Neal at ISU00 #31 M.Neal return 16 yards to the ISU16 (#61 B.Foster; #75 C.Clements)
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Becht pass complete deep right to #0 C.Sowell caught at KAN31, for 36 yards to the KAN29 (#22 S.Gibbs), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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