| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 7 | 24 | 7 | 9 | 47 |
| UTAH | 7 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 51 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTAH Elo 1977, KSU Elo 1674) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -14.5 (86% to win) — 3.5 points of value on KSU versus the market line of -18.
KSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kansas State 47, Utah 51.
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTAH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(09:20) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush middle for 66 yards gain to the UTA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:07, 1ST DOWN #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)
(01:31) Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush right for 80 yards gain to the UTA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:17, 1ST DOWN #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Dampier rush middle for 59 yards gain to the KST02 (#29 K.Thomas), 1ST DOWN
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