Kansas State vs. Utah: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KSUTeam statsUTAH
- Q4 0:56UTAHDevon Dampier 1 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)47–51
- Q4 2:47UTAHLarry Simmons 20 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)47–44
- Q4 7:00UTAHTao Johnson Defensive PAT Conversion 47–37
- Q4 7:00KSUJoe Jackson 24 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)47–35
- Q4 8:51KSULuis Rodriguez 36 Yd Field Goal 41–35
- Q3 1:44KSUGarrett Oakley 2 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)38–35
- Q3 10:03UTAHByrd Ficklin 10 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)31–35
- Q3 13:49UTAHDallen Bentley 38 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)31–28
- Q2 1:17KSUJoe Jackson 80 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)31–21
- Q2 4:32KSULuis Rodriguez 22 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q2 6:51UTAHDevon Dampier 8 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)21–21
- Q2 9:07KSUJoe Jackson 66 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)21–14
- Q2 11:11UTAHByrd Ficklin 6 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:54KSUAvery Johnson 4 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:48UTAHByrd Ficklin 10 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:29KSUAntonio Martin Jr. 37 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTAH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassAvery Johnson 12/23, 102 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJoe Jackson 24 CAR, 293 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJaron Tibbs 6 REC, 45 YDS
- PassDevon Dampier 18/33, 259 YDS, 2 TD
- RushWayshawn Parker 19 CAR, 100 YDS
- RecJJ Buchanan 2 REC, 74 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:56UTAH +72%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Dampier rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KST00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 2:47UTAH +35%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 D.Dampier pass complete deep left to #12 L.Simmons caught at KST00, for 20 yards to the KST00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 1:44KSU +30%
Garrett Oakley 2 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
- Q4 7:00KSU +29%
#5 T.Johnson pass attempt Failed, intercepted by T.Johnson, return for defensive PAT
- Q2 1:17KSU +29%
Shotgun #4 J.Jackson rush right for 80 yards gain to the UTA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 2:42KSU +28%
Shotgun #2 A.Johnson sacked for loss of 1 yard to the KST24 (#0 L.Fano)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Utah?
Kansas State 47, Utah 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| KSU | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 574 | Total yards | 551 |
| 102 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 472 | Rushing yards | 292 |
| 21 | First downs | 32 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 12/23 | Comp/Att | 18/34 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 11.2 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-75 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 30:56 | Possession | 29:04 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:47 UTAH punt on 4th & 7 at KSU 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:56UTAHDevon Dampier 1 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)47–51
- Q4 2:47UTAHLarry Simmons 20 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)47–44
- Q4 7:00UTAHTao Johnson Defensive PAT Conversion 47–37
- Q4 7:00KSUJoe Jackson 24 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)47–35
- Q4 8:51KSULuis Rodriguez 36 Yd Field Goal 41–35
- Q3 1:44KSUGarrett Oakley 2 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)38–35
- Q3 10:03UTAHByrd Ficklin 10 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)31–35
- Q3 13:49UTAHDallen Bentley 38 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)31–28
- Q2 1:17KSUJoe Jackson 80 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)31–21
- Q2 4:32KSULuis Rodriguez 22 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q2 6:51UTAHDevon Dampier 8 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)21–21
- Q2 9:07KSUJoe Jackson 66 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)21–14
- Q2 11:11UTAHByrd Ficklin 6 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:54KSUAvery Johnson 4 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:48UTAHByrd Ficklin 10 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:29KSUAntonio Martin Jr. 37 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTAH Elo 1977, KSU Elo 1674 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -14.5 (83% to win) — 3.5 points clear of KSU's market line of -18. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KSU | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#49) | CORE overall | +29.1 (#7) |
| +3 / -4 | offense / defense | +19 / -10 |
| 2.44 | points / drive | 3.52 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 1.62 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →