James Madison vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JMUTeam statsLIB
- Q4 2:31JMUAlonza Barnett III 13 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)31–13
- Q4 11:07JMUAlonza Barnett III 9 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)24–13
- Q3 3:32JMUWayne Knight 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)17–13
- Q3 8:06LIBJay Billingsley 35 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 1:19JMULandon Ellis 21 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)10–10
- Q2 5:34LIBEthan Vasko 2 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)3–10
- Q1 4:55LIBJay Billingsley 47 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:42JMUMorgan Suarez 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LIB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and JMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.2 vs 3rd & 4.6
- PassAlonza Barnett III 17/25, 213 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushWayne Knight 17 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaylan Sanchez 4 REC, 51 YDS
- PassEthan Vasko 4/10, 37 YDS
- RushEvan Dickens 17 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecJamari Person 2 REC, 29 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJMU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:32JMU +29%
Wayne Knight run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
- Q4 11:07JMU +17%
Alonza Barnett III run for 9 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
- Q3 8:06LIB +12%
Jay Billingsley 35 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 0:52JMU +10%
PENALTY LU Offside (Pirolli,Nathan) 5 yards from JMU47 to LU48. NO PLAY
- Q1 9:42LIB +9%
Morgan Suarez 39 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 1:59LIB +8%
Max Morgan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Wayne Knight at the JMU 33
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. Liberty?
James Madison 31, Liberty 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| JMU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 440 | Total yards | 233 |
| 213 | Passing yards | 75 |
| 227 | Rushing yards | 158 |
| 24 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-10 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 17/25 | Comp/Att | 7/21 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 3.6 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-72 | Penalties | 6-44 |
| 33:03 | Possession | 26:57 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:31JMUAlonza Barnett III 13 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)31–13
- Q4 11:07JMUAlonza Barnett III 9 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)24–13
- Q3 3:32JMUWayne Knight 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)17–13
- Q3 8:06LIBJay Billingsley 35 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 1:19JMULandon Ellis 21 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)10–10
- Q2 5:34LIBEthan Vasko 2 Yd Run (Jay Billingsley Kick)3–10
- Q1 4:55LIBJay Billingsley 47 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 9:42JMUMorgan Suarez 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1472, JMU Elo 1606 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB +3 (43% to win) — 4.5 points clear of LIB's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JMU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#13) | CORE overall | -7.1 (#88) |
| +5 / -16 | offense / defense | +2 / +9 |
| 3.06 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 1.42 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →