Williams Stadium (VA)Closing line: JMU +-7.5 · JMU covered
Sat, Sep 20, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 3 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| LIB | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LIB Elo 1472, JMU Elo 1606) plus home-field advantage. That projects LIB +3 (41% to win) — 4.5 points of value on LIB versus the market line of +7.5.
JMU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
James Madison 31, Liberty 13.
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Alonza Barnett III pass intercepted, touchback. Brylan Green return for no gain
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 30 yds to the LIB 33 for a 1ST down
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Lacota Dippre for 36 yds to the LIB 46 for a 1ST down
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