Jacksonville State vs. UCF: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JXSTTeam statsUCF
- Q4 1:03UCFDJ Black 33 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)10–17
- Q4 9:30UCFDylan Wade 39 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)10–10
- Q4 12:01JXSTAndrew Paul 10 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)10–3
- Q3 5:28JXSTGarrison Rippa 42 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q3 8:03UCFNoe Ruelas 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UCF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and JXST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 7.3
- UCF lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassGavin Wimsatt 15/29, 139 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCam Cook 17 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecCam Cook 4 REC, 43 YDS
- PassTayven Jackson 17/24, 282 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMyles Montgomery 21 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecMyles Montgomery 3 REC, 71 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:30UCF +46%
Tayven Jackson pass incomplete to DJ Black
- Q4 9:30UCF +38%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Dylan Wade for 39 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
- Q4 12:01JXST +30%
Andrew Paul run for 10 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
- Q4 1:03UCF +25%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DJ Black for 33 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
- Q4 7:24JXST +23%
Cade Backe punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 30
- Q3 5:28JXST +20%
Garrison Rippa 42 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. UCF?
Jacksonville State 10, UCF 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| JXST | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 322 | Total yards | 422 |
| 157 | Passing yards | 314 |
| 165 | Rushing yards | 108 |
| 18 | First downs | 23 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 4-6 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 16/30 | Comp/Att | 22/33 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 9-80 |
| 28:04 | Possession | 31:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:45 UCF punt on 4th & 4 at JXST 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.87 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:03UCFDJ Black 33 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)10–17
- Q4 9:30UCFDylan Wade 39 Yd pass from Tayven Jackson (Noe Ruelas Kick)10–10
- Q4 12:01JXSTAndrew Paul 10 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)10–3
- Q3 5:28JXSTGarrison Rippa 42 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q3 8:03UCFNoe Ruelas 24 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1538, JXST Elo 1650 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF +2.1 (46% to win) — 21.1 points clear of JXST's market line of -19. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JXST | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#99) | CORE overall | -5.0 (#80) |
| -4 / +7 | offense / defense | -6 / -1 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 1.73 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -12 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →