Iowa vs. Iowa State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IOWATeam statsISU
- Q4 1:52ISUKyle Konrardy 54 Yd Field Goal 13–16
- Q3 4:28IOWADrew Stevens 36 Yd Field Goal 13–13
- Q2 0:27IOWAMark Gronowski 2 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)10–13
- Q2 4:50ISUBenjamin Brahmer 2 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)3–13
- Q2 12:53IOWADrew Stevens 31 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 3:18ISUKyle Konrardy 27 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 8:42ISUKyle Konrardy 44 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassMark Gronowski 13/24, 83 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJaziun Patterson 11 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecJacob Gill 5 REC, 52 YDS
- PassRocco Becht 18/27, 134 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAbu Sama III 12 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecBrett Eskildsen 2 REC, 39 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:52ISU +24%
Kyle Konrardy 54 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 1:33IOWA +23%
Mark Gronowski pass complete to DJ Vonnahme for 6 yds to the IOWA 30
- Q4 0:42ISU +22%
R. Becht takes a knee
- Q2 0:27IOWA +21%
Mark Gronowski run for 2 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
- Q2 4:50ISU +19%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)
- Q4 8:14ISU +18%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Hansen for 5 yds to the ISU 15
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa vs. Iowa State?
Iowa 13, Iowa State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.
| IOWA | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 214 | Total yards | 238 |
| 83 | Passing yards | 134 |
| 131 | Rushing yards | 104 |
| 16 | First downs | 14 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/24 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 3.5 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-38 | Penalties | 5-42 |
| 31:08 | Possession | 28:52 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:41 IOWA punt on 4th & 1 at IOWA 22. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.91 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:52ISUKyle Konrardy 54 Yd Field Goal 13–16
- Q3 4:28IOWADrew Stevens 36 Yd Field Goal 13–13
- Q2 0:27IOWAMark Gronowski 2 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)10–13
- Q2 4:50ISUBenjamin Brahmer 2 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)3–13
- Q2 12:53IOWADrew Stevens 31 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 3:18ISUKyle Konrardy 27 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 8:42ISUKyle Konrardy 44 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ISU Elo 1619, IOWA Elo 1682 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ISU +0.1 (51% to win) — 2.6 points clear of IOWA's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesIowa leads 47–23 · Iowa State has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| IOWA | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.7 (#24) | CORE overall | +6.4 (#51) |
| +4 / -13 | offense / defense | +2 / -4 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 1.35 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →