Indiana vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IUTeam statsIOWA
- Q4 0:00IOWATeam Safety20–15
- Q4 1:28IUElijah Sarratt 49 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)20–13
- Q4 9:47IUNico Radicic 44 Yd Field Goal 13–13
- Q4 12:43IOWADrew Stevens 54 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 0:03IUNico Radicic 46 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 0:22IOWAMark Gronowski 3 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:25IOWADrew Stevens 40 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:33IUOmar Cooper Jr. 14 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassFernando Mendoza 13/23, 233 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushRoman Hemby 15 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecElijah Sarratt 7 REC, 156 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMark Gronowski 19/25, 144 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKamari Moulton 18 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecSam Phillips 5 REC, 64 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:56IU +40%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the IU 27
- Q4 2:01IOWA +38%
Drew Stevens 42 yd FG MISSED
- Q4 12:43IOWA +29%
Drew Stevens 54 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 9:47IU +29%
Nico Radicic 44 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 1:28IU +25%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Elijah Sarratt for 49 yds for a TD (Nico Radicic KICK)
- Q4 3:41IU +23%
Shotgun Mendoza,Fernando pass incomplete deep right to Williams Jr.,E.J. thrown to Iowa03 QB hurried by Lutmer,Zach PENALTY IND Holding 10 yards from Iowa44 to IND46.…
FAQ
What was the final score of Indiana vs. Iowa?
Indiana 20, Iowa 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
| IU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total yards | 284 |
| 233 | Passing yards | 192 |
| 104 | Rushing yards | 92 |
| 18 | First downs | 17 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/23 | Comp/Att | 24/38 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 2-25 |
| 27:18 | Possession | 32:42 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:41 IOWA punt on 4th & 3 at IU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.96 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00IOWATeam Safety20–15
- Q4 1:28IUElijah Sarratt 49 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)20–13
- Q4 9:47IUNico Radicic 44 Yd Field Goal 13–13
- Q4 12:43IOWADrew Stevens 54 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 0:03IUNico Radicic 46 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 0:22IOWAMark Gronowski 3 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–10
- Q1 6:25IOWADrew Stevens 40 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:33IUOmar Cooper Jr. 14 Yd pass from Fernando Mendoza (Nico Radicic Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1733, IU Elo 2010 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA +8.7 (29% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesIowa leads 46–29–4 · 49% have been one-possession games
| IU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| +35.3 (#3) | CORE overall | +16.7 (#24) |
| +19 / -17 | offense / defense | +4 / -13 |
| 3.69 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 0.94 | allowed / drive | 1.35 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →