Hawai'i vs. UNLV: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsUNLV
- Q4 12:49UNLVJoJo Earle 27 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)10–38
- Q4 14:55UNLVDaejon Reynolds 1 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:05HAWKansei Matsuzawa 45 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 5:45UNLVKeyvone Lee 14 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–24
- Q2 13:37UNLVTaeshaun Lyons 72 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)7–17
- Q1 3:47UNLVJaden Bradley 8 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)7–10
- Q1 8:16HAWJackson Harris 70 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:28UNLVRamon Villela 44 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassMicah Alejado 15/24, 163 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLandon Sims 7 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecJackson Harris 3 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAnthony Colandrea 21/26, 253 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJai'Den Thomas 13 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecTaeshaun Lyons 2 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. UNLV?
Hawai'i 10, UNLV 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
| HAW | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 231 | Total yards | 470 |
| 163 | Passing yards | 253 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 217 |
| 12 | First downs | 30 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 8-11 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/24 | Comp/Att | 21/26 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-103 | Penalties | 6-80 |
| 24:58 | Possession | 35:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:11 HAW go for it on 4th & 13 at UNLV 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:49UNLVJoJo Earle 27 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)10–38
- Q4 14:55UNLVDaejon Reynolds 1 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)10–31
- Q2 0:05HAWKansei Matsuzawa 45 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 5:45UNLVKeyvone Lee 14 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–24
- Q2 13:37UNLVTaeshaun Lyons 72 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)7–17
- Q1 3:47UNLVJaden Bradley 8 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)7–10
- Q1 8:16HAWJackson Harris 70 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–3
- Q1 9:28UNLVRamon Villela 44 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNLV Elo 1604, HAW Elo 1480 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -7.4 (70% to win) — 4.9 points clear of UNLV's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 16–16 · UNLV has won 3 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| HAW | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.2 (#82) | CORE overall | -1.9 (#69) |
| +1 / +7 | offense / defense | +10 / +12 |
| 2.21 | points / drive | 2.90 |
| 2.06 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →