Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Sat, Aug 30, 11:45 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| MISS | 7 | 18 | 17 | 21 | 63 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MISS Elo 1838, GAST Elo 1331) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -22.7 (95% to win) — 12.3 points of value on GAST versus the market line of -35.
MISS up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia State 7, Ole Miss 63.
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Javon Robinson for 43 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
Austin Simmons pass intercepted, touchback.
Kewan Lacy run for 42 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
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