Georgia State vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsMISS
- Q4 0:33MISSLogan Diggs 5 Yd Run (Mike Baker Kick)7–63
- Q4 6:38MISSIzaiah Hartrup 13 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Mike Baker Kick)7–56
- Q4 13:31MISSHarrison Wallace III 26 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Mike Baker Kick)7–49
- Q3 0:20MISSLucas Carneiro 33 Yd Field Goal 7–42
- Q3 10:32MISSCaleb Odom 9 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–39
- Q3 13:04MISSKewan Lacy 42 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–32
- Q2 0:21MISSKewan Lacy 2 Yd Run (Trinidad Chambliss Run for Two-Point Conversion)7–25
- Q2 5:19GASTJavon Robinson 43 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Liam Rickman Kick)7–17
- Q2 7:31MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–17
- Q2 11:28MISSLucas Carneiro 42 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:32MISSDae'Quan Wright 38 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MISS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.8 vs 3rd & 4.2
- PassChristian Veilleux 4/11, 52 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRashad Amos 9 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecJavon Robinson 3 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAustin Simmons 20/31, 341 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushKewan Lacy 16 CAR, 108 YDS, 3 TD
- RecHarrison Wallace III 5 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:52MISS +90%
Shotgun Simmons,Austin rush middle for 10 yards gain to the OM30 (Robinson,Josiah) PENALTY OM Holding (Kutas,Patrick) 10 yards from OM20 to OM10. NO PLAY
- Q4 0:00GAST +88%
TJ Peyton run for 7 yds to the GAST 32
- Q4 2:54MISS +31%
Logan Diggs run for 8 yds to the MISS 26
- Q4 11:18GAST +29%
Reed Chandley punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 32
- Q4 3:48GAST +28%
PENALTY GS Delay Of Game 5 yards from OM15 to OM20. NO PLAY
- Q4 10:01GAST +14%
PENALTY GS Delay Of Game 3 yards from GS07 to GS04. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Ole Miss?
Georgia State 7, Ole Miss 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
| GAST | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 260 | Total yards | 695 |
| 69 | Passing yards | 400 |
| 191 | Rushing yards | 295 |
| 10 | First downs | 34 |
| 2-15 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 12/25 | Comp/Att | 24/37 |
| 2.8 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 6.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-60 | Penalties | 8-51 |
| 31:24 | Possession | 28:36 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:04 GAST punt on 4th & 9 at MISS 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.26 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:33MISSLogan Diggs 5 Yd Run (Mike Baker Kick)7–63
- Q4 6:38MISSIzaiah Hartrup 13 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Mike Baker Kick)7–56
- Q4 13:31MISSHarrison Wallace III 26 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Mike Baker Kick)7–49
- Q3 0:20MISSLucas Carneiro 33 Yd Field Goal 7–42
- Q3 10:32MISSCaleb Odom 9 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–39
- Q3 13:04MISSKewan Lacy 42 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–32
- Q2 0:21MISSKewan Lacy 2 Yd Run (Trinidad Chambliss Run for Two-Point Conversion)7–25
- Q2 5:19GASTJavon Robinson 43 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Liam Rickman Kick)7–17
- Q2 7:31MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–17
- Q2 11:28MISSLucas Carneiro 42 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 10:32MISSDae'Quan Wright 38 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1838, GAST Elo 1331 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -22.7 (92% to win) — 12.3 points clear of GAST's market line of -35. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GAST | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.7 (#117) | CORE overall | +19.4 (#16) |
| -6 / +11 | offense / defense | +16 / -4 |
| 1.62 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 3.54 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →