#13Austin Simmons

QB·Ole Miss·2025

Austin Simmons is a Dual-Threat QB for Ole Miss. Austin's 2025 season ranks in the 95th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 68 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Austin Simmons's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

45/75 Comp/Att744 Pass yards4 Pass TD5 INT60.0% Comp %

Rushing

71 Rush yards1 Rush TD22 Carries3.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency95
Volume61
Dual-Threat91
Consistency61
Clutch44

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)95th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency61th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 1.01 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.84 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Arkansas (SP+ 5).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsGeorgia State	W63-7	-24.5	20/31	341	3	2	57.4	17	0	0.46
2	@Kentucky	W30-23	1.8	13/24	235	0	2	80.3	44	1	0.56
3	vsArkansas	W41-35	5.1	1/1	4	1	0	100.0	8	0	1.84
9	@Oklahoma	W34-26	18.3	0/2	0	0	0	1.0	—	—	-0.31
11	vsThe Citadel	W49-0	—	7/12	100	0	1	14.5	8	0	0.20
20	vsTulane	W41-10	6.3	4/5	64	0	0	20.9	-6	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.2%

Passing plays

34.7%

Rushing plays

8.2%

Standard downs

19.9%

Passing downs

25.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.56
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.72 / 0.36

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).