| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GASO | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 20 |
| USC | 21 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 59 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USC Elo 1841, GASO Elo 1382) plus home-field advantage. That projects USC -20.8 (94% to win) — 7.7 points of value on GASO versus the market line of -28.5.
USC up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia Southern 20, USC 59.
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 74 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 62 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 53 yds to the GASO 15 for a 1ST down Georgia Southern Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Crouch) declined for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
