Georgia Southern vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsUSC
- Q4 10:24USCKing Miller 41 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)20–59
- Q4 12:55USCEli Sanders 5 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)20–52
- Q3 1:34GASODalen Cobb 13 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)20–45
- Q3 7:58USCEli Sanders 1 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)13–45
- Q3 10:49USCWaymond Jordan 36 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)13–38
- Q2 3:31USCWalker Lyons 14 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)13–31
- Q2 8:52USCRyon Sayeri 26 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q2 11:32GASOCamden Brown 24 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)13–21
- Q1 2:14USCMakai Lemon 74 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)6–21
- Q1 6:53USCMakai Lemon 62 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)6–14
- Q1 8:50USCJa'Kobi Lane 12 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)6–7
- Q1 13:01GASOCamden Brown 32 Yd pass from Weston Bryan (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GASO lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassJC French IV 19/35, 179 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJamarian Samuel 4 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecCamden Brown 3 REC, 75 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJayden Maiava 16/24, 412 YDS, 4 TD
- RushWaymond Jordan 16 CAR, 167 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMakai Lemon 4 REC, 158 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSC up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:50USC +10%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 12 yds for a TD Georgia Southern Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Crouch) declined (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
- Q1 13:01GASO +9%
Weston Bryan pass complete to Camden Brown for 32 yds for a TD USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q1 6:53USC +6%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Makai Lemon for 62 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. USC?
Georgia Southern 20, USC 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| GASO | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 377 | Total yards | 755 |
| 235 | Passing yards | 446 |
| 142 | Rushing yards | 309 |
| 26 | First downs | 28 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/45 | Comp/Att | 20/30 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 14.9 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 9.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-1 | Penalties | 8-93 |
| 29:48 | Possession | 30:12 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:12 GASO punt on 4th & 1 at GASO 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:24USCKing Miller 41 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)20–59
- Q4 12:55USCEli Sanders 5 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)20–52
- Q3 1:34GASODalen Cobb 13 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)20–45
- Q3 7:58USCEli Sanders 1 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)13–45
- Q3 10:49USCWaymond Jordan 36 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)13–38
- Q2 3:31USCWalker Lyons 14 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)13–31
- Q2 8:52USCRyon Sayeri 26 Yd Field Goal 13–24
- Q2 11:32GASOCamden Brown 24 Yd pass from JC French IV (Tripp Bryant Kick)13–21
- Q1 2:14USCMakai Lemon 74 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)6–21
- Q1 6:53USCMakai Lemon 62 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)6–14
- Q1 8:50USCJa'Kobi Lane 12 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Ryon Sayeri Kick)6–7
- Q1 13:01GASOCamden Brown 32 Yd pass from Weston Bryan (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1841, GASO Elo 1382 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -20.8 (91% to win) — 7.7 points clear of GASO's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GASO | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.7 (#105) | CORE overall | +22.5 (#10) |
| +2 / +17 | offense / defense | +18 / -4 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 3.53 |
| 3.06 | allowed / drive | 2.14 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →