Gardner-Webb vs. Georgia Tech: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Gardner-Webb

0012

Georgia Tech1-0

▸0059

Final

Bobby Dodd Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
GARD	6	0	0	6	12
GT	7	21	14	17	59

GARDTeam statsGT

326Total yards680

209Pass457

117Rush223

20First downs21

4-183rd down2-8

1Turnovers2

37:23Possession22:40

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:03GTDean Patterson 84 Yd pass from Graham Knowles (Aidan Birr Kick)12–59
• Q4 6:21GTJ.P. Powell 1 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)12–52
• Q4 10:19GTAidan Birr 23 Yd Field Goal 12–45
• Q4 13:39GARDCaleb Borders 14 Yd pass from Cole Pennington (Charlie Viorel PAT blocked)12–42
• Q3 0:36GTAhmari Harvey 65 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Aidan Birr Kick)6–42
• Q3 7:12GTMalachi Hosley 5 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)6–35
• Q2 3:59GTJamal Haynes 1 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)6–28
• Q2 9:35GTJamal Haynes 47 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)6–21
• Q2 13:32GTMalachi Hosley 55 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)6–14
• Q1 3:07GTIsiah Canion 11 Yd pass from Aaron Philo (Aidan Birr Kick)6–7
• Q1 10:17GARDAnthony Lowe 1 Yd pass from Nate Hampton (Charlie Viorel PAT failed)6–0

How the model called it

Market line

GT −37.5

Against the number

GT covered

line GT −37.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

GT 100%50%GARD 100%

Kickoff152 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

GT (top)GARD (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

GT −37.5

Closing total

59.5

Model line

—

Actual result

GARD 12 – 59 GT

Leaders

Gardner-Webb

• PassCole Pennington 14/21, 164 YDS, 1 TD
• RushQuasean Holmes 14 CAR, 48 YDS
• RecAnthony Lowe 8 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD

Georgia Tech

• PassAaron Philo 21/28, 373 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushMalachi Hosley 9 CAR, 100 YDS, 2 TD
• RecDean Patterson 3 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.5sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

129

Points / snap

0.55

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

GT up 36 entering the 4th quarter. Across 339 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

GT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WMontana vs Utah Tech43-13WTexas State vs Jackson State77-34WLiberty vs Old Dominion39-10WWeber State vs Northwestern State39-0WLouisiana vs Arkansas State55-19

Fourth downs

17 calls

GT gave up 1.3 points to the model on fourth down.GARD 5/9 · GT 2/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Gardner-Webb vs. Georgia Tech?

Gardner-Webb 12, Georgia Tech 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (GT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

GARD

GT

33%

Success rate

59%

-0.01

EPA / pass

0.73

-0.20

EPA / rush

0.08

35%

Early-down success

67%

44%

Pass success

61%

21%

Rush success

57%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

29%

27%

Stuffed rush rate

7%

51%

Pass rate

53%

7.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.5

GARD

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

GT

8.5 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

GARD		GT
326	Total yards	680
209	Passing yards	457
117	Rushing yards	223
20	First downs	21
4-18	3rd down	2-8
1-2	4th down	1-2
20/30	Comp/Att	22/29
7.0	Yards per pass	15.8
2.5	Yards per rush	8.0
1	Turnovers	2
5-20	Penalties	12-94
37:23	Possession	22:40

Fourth downs

17 calls

GARD

5/9 with the model

−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

GT

2/5 with the model

−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 9:50 GT go for it on 4th & 19 at GARD 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.60 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

GARD 0/13 scoring drives← own end zone →GT 0/12 scoring drives

GARDTD7 pl, 1 yds· opp 1Q1

GTINT6 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1

GARDDOWNS9 pl, 18 yds· own 12Q1

GTTD4 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q1

GARDDOWNS10 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q1

GTTD2 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q2

GARDPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q2

GTDOWNS3 pl, 41 yds· own 6Q2

GARDPUNT4 pl, 13 yds· own 1Q2

GTDOWNS8 pl, 65 yds· opp 36Q2

GARDPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

GTPUNT7 pl, 44 yds· own 7Q2

GARDPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 29Q2

GTEND2 pl, 34 yds· own 21Q2

GTDOWNS11 pl, 79 yds· own 25Q3

GARDDOWNS1 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q3

GTTD5 pl, 25 yds· opp 25Q3

GARDTD17 pl, 62 yds· own 25Q3

GARDTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

GTFG9 pl, 57 yds· own 38Q4

GARDDOWNS4 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q4

GTDOWNS3 pl, 85 yds· own 14Q4

GARDPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q4

GTDOWNS1 pl, 0 yds· own 16Q4

GARDDOWNS7 pl, 30 yds· own 27Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:03GTDean Patterson 84 Yd pass from Graham Knowles (Aidan Birr Kick)12–59
• Q4 6:21GTJ.P. Powell 1 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)12–52
• Q4 10:19GTAidan Birr 23 Yd Field Goal 12–45
• Q4 13:39GARDCaleb Borders 14 Yd pass from Cole Pennington (Charlie Viorel PAT blocked)12–42
• Q3 0:36GTAhmari Harvey 65 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Aidan Birr Kick)6–42
• Q3 7:12GTMalachi Hosley 5 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)6–35
• Q2 3:59GTJamal Haynes 1 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)6–28
• Q2 9:35GTJamal Haynes 47 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)6–21
• Q2 13:32GTMalachi Hosley 55 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)6–14
• Q1 3:07GTIsiah Canion 11 Yd pass from Aaron Philo (Aidan Birr Kick)6–7
• Q1 10:17GARDAnthony Lowe 1 Yd pass from Nate Hampton (Charlie Viorel PAT failed)6–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →