| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 14 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 20 |
| UTSA | 14 | 17 | 9 | 17 | 57 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTSA Elo 1575, FIU Elo 1417) on a neutral field. That projects UTSA -6.3 (68% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = FIU ahead, below = UTSA ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- FIU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. UTSA pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge UTSA.
- UTSA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. FIU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge UTSA.
- UTSA pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. FIU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge UTSA.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UTSA up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. UTSA?
Florida International 20, UTSA 57.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTSA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTSA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.