Florida International vs. UTSA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsUTSA
- Q4 1:55UTSABryson Donnell 12 Yd Run (Jaffer Murphy Kick)20–57
- Q4 6:02UTSAMichael Petro 36 Yd Field Goal 20–50
- Q4 14:20UTSAPatrick Overmyer 34 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)20–47
- Q3 4:13UTSAAhamad Chapman Defensive PAT Conversion20–40
- Q3 4:13FIUDallas Payne 22 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–38
- Q3 8:25UTSAWill Henderson III 5 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)14–38
- Q2 1:17UTSAA'Marion Peterson 10 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)14–31
- Q2 9:42UTSADevin McCuin 23 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)14–24
- Q2 14:55UTSAMichael Petro 37 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q1 4:15UTSAWill Henderson III 40 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:36UTSAWill Henderson III 2 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:26FIUMaguire Anderson 97 Yd Punt Return (Noah Grant Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:17FIUKyle McNeal 19 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = FIU ahead, below = UTSA ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassJoe Pesansky 11/31, 102 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKejon Owens 8 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecJojo Stone 4 REC, 28 YDS
- PassOwen McCown 18/28, 295 YDS, 3 TD
- RushWill Henderson III 14 CAR, 59 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDevin McCuin 6 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. UTSA?
Florida International 20, UTSA 57.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTSA) was correct.
| FIU | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 255 | Total yards | 481 |
| 176 | Passing yards | 295 |
| 79 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 22 | First downs | 25 |
| 6-18 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-10 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 21/49 | Comp/Att | 18/31 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-31 | Penalties | 11-133 |
| 28:54 | Possession | 31:06 |
- Q4 1:55UTSABryson Donnell 12 Yd Run (Jaffer Murphy Kick)20–57
- Q4 6:02UTSAMichael Petro 36 Yd Field Goal 20–50
- Q4 14:20UTSAPatrick Overmyer 34 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)20–47
- Q3 4:13UTSAAhamad Chapman Defensive PAT Conversion20–40
- Q3 4:13FIUDallas Payne 22 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–38
- Q3 8:25UTSAWill Henderson III 5 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)14–38
- Q2 1:17UTSAA'Marion Peterson 10 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)14–31
- Q2 9:42UTSADevin McCuin 23 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)14–24
- Q2 14:55UTSAMichael Petro 37 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q1 4:15UTSAWill Henderson III 40 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:36UTSAWill Henderson III 2 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:26FIUMaguire Anderson 97 Yd Punt Return (Noah Grant Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:17FIUKyle McNeal 19 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1575, FIU Elo 1417 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects UTSA -6.3 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FIU | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#109) | CORE overall | +4.7 (#58) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | +3 / -2 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →