Florida International vs. Sam Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsSHSU
- Q4 1:51FIUSterling Joseph 31 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)56–16
- Q4 3:08FIUSterling Joseph 61 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)49–16
- Q4 7:16SHSUGrady O'Neill 8 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)42–16
- Q3 0:44FIUAnthony Carrie 1 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)42–10
- Q3 6:04FIUKeyone Jenkins 6 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)35–10
- Q2 0:16FIUNoah Grant 24 Yd Field Goal 28–10
- Q2 7:32FIUNoah Grant 29 Yd Field Goal 25–10
- Q2 13:00SHSUChristian Pavon 34 Yd Field Goal 22–10
- Q1 1:37FIUAlex Perry 35 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Kejon Owens Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–7
- Q1 4:06FIUAlex Perry 8 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)14–7
- Q1 10:30SHSULandan Brown 1 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:46FIUDallas Payne 4 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassKeyone Jenkins 15/24, 291 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushKejon Owens 15 CAR, 124 YDS
- RecAlex Perry 7 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD
- PassLandyn Locke 14/30, 121 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushElijah Green 11 CAR, 98 YDS
- RecGrady O'Neill 8 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:06FIU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short right to #4 A.Perry caught at SAM00, for 8 yards to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 10:30SHSU +12%
Shotgun #34 L.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 12:46FIU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #0 D.Payne caught at SAM02, for 4 yards to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 1:37FIU +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Jenkins pass complete short left to #4 A.Perry caught at SAM31, for 35 yards to the SAM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. Sam Houston?
Florida International 56, Sam Houston 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FIU) was correct.
| FIU | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 594 | Total yards | 359 |
| 291 | Passing yards | 163 |
| 303 | Rushing yards | 196 |
| 24 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 15/24 | Comp/Att | 16/33 |
| 12.1 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 7.6 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 7-57 |
| 30:41 | Possession | 29:19 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:10 SHSU go for it on 4th & 18 at SHSU 21. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.32 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:51FIUSterling Joseph 31 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)56–16
- Q4 3:08FIUSterling Joseph 61 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)49–16
- Q4 7:16SHSUGrady O'Neill 8 Yd pass from Landyn Locke (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)42–16
- Q3 0:44FIUAnthony Carrie 1 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)42–10
- Q3 6:04FIUKeyone Jenkins 6 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)35–10
- Q2 0:16FIUNoah Grant 24 Yd Field Goal 28–10
- Q2 7:32FIUNoah Grant 29 Yd Field Goal 25–10
- Q2 13:00SHSUChristian Pavon 34 Yd Field Goal 22–10
- Q1 1:37FIUAlex Perry 35 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Kejon Owens Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–7
- Q1 4:06FIUAlex Perry 8 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)14–7
- Q1 10:30SHSULandan Brown 1 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:46FIUDallas Payne 4 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Noah Grant Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SHSU Elo 1068, FIU Elo 1343 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SHSU +11 (24% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FIU | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#109) | CORE overall | -30.3 (#134) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | -15 / +15 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 1.26 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.93 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →