BBVA Compass StadiumNeutral siteConference gameClosing line: FIU +-10.5 · FIU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 22 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 56 |
| SHSU | 7 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 16 |
Team stats
FIUthis game · better side highlightedSHSU
594
Total yards
359291
Passing yards
163303
Rushing yards
19624
First downs
19Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SHSU 1068
FIU 1343
Projected spread
SHSU +11
neutral site
Model pick
FIU
79% to win
Market spread
SHSU +10.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
21%
SHSU · market 23%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SHSU Elo 1068, FIU Elo 1343) on a neutral field. That projects SHSU +11 (21% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SHSU (top)FIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SHSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. FIU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge FIU.
- FIU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- SHSU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. FIU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge FIU.
Drive-by-drive
FIU 9/15 scoring drives← own end zone →SHSU 3/16 scoring drives
FIUTD5 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1
SHSUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
FIUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FIU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
FIU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. Sam Houston?
Florida International 56, Sam Houston 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FIU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had FIU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.