Eastern Michigan vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsTXST
- Q4 0:41EMUJoey Mattord 7 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)27–52
- Q4 4:02TXSTJaylen Jenkins 58 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)20–52
- Q4 6:29EMURudy Kessinger 37 Yd Field Goal 20–45
- Q4 12:19TXSTGreg Burrell 15 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)17–45
- Q3 0:19TXSTBeau Sparks 5 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)17–38
- Q3 7:18TXSTBeau Sparks 3 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)17–31
- Q2 0:12EMUJoshua Long 16 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)17–24
- Q2 3:56TXSTLincoln Pare 22 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)10–24
- Q2 8:39TXSTTyler Robles 24 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 13:33EMUTavierre Dunlap 2 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)10–14
- Q1 6:41TXSTBeau Sparks 15 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)3–14
- Q1 8:47EMURudy Kessinger 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:19TXSTBeau Sparks 16 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNoah Kim 23/34, 248 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDontae McMillan 9 CAR, 78 YDS
- RecTerry Lockett Jr. 5 REC, 62 YDS
- PassBrad Jackson 18/26, 214 YDS, 4 TD
- RushLincoln Pare 12 CAR, 167 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBeau Sparks 7 REC, 82 YDS, 4 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:18TXST +7%
Beau Sparks 3 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Texas State?
Eastern Michigan 27, Texas State 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
| EMU | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 391 | Total yards | 606 |
| 248 | Passing yards | 214 |
| 143 | Rushing yards | 392 |
| 23 | First downs | 30 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 7-10 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 23/34 | Comp/Att | 18/27 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 10.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 6-42 |
| 29:02 | Possession | 30:58 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:39 TXST field goal on 4th & 4 at EMU 7. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.06 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:41EMUJoey Mattord 7 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)27–52
- Q4 4:02TXSTJaylen Jenkins 58 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)20–52
- Q4 6:29EMURudy Kessinger 37 Yd Field Goal 20–45
- Q4 12:19TXSTGreg Burrell 15 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)17–45
- Q3 0:19TXSTBeau Sparks 5 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)17–38
- Q3 7:18TXSTBeau Sparks 3 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)17–31
- Q2 0:12EMUJoshua Long 16 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)17–24
- Q2 3:56TXSTLincoln Pare 22 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)10–24
- Q2 8:39TXSTTyler Robles 24 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 13:33EMUTavierre Dunlap 2 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)10–14
- Q1 6:41TXSTBeau Sparks 15 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)3–14
- Q1 8:47EMURudy Kessinger 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:19TXSTBeau Sparks 16 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1593, EMU Elo 1283 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -14.8 (84% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| EMU | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 (#114) | CORE overall | +9.4 (#41) |
| -3 / +13 | offense / defense | +12 / +3 |
| 2.13 | points / drive | 3.21 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 2.73 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →