Sat, Nov 29, 5:00 PM


| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 42 |
| FAU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FAU Elo 1263, ECU Elo 1491) plus home-field advantage. That projects FAU +6.7 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
ECU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
East Carolina 42, Florida Atlantic 3.
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ECU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Z.Gibson rush middle for 3 yards loss to the ECU04 fumbled by #7 Z.Gibson at ECU04 recovered by ECU #2 J.Riddle at ECU04 #2 J.Riddle return 15 yards to the ECU19 (#23 G.Sands; #7 Z.Gibson)
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 Z.Gibson pass intercepted by #39 A.Ross at ECU00, Touchback
End of 2nd quarter.
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