East Carolina
7-4·American Athletic· Elo 1491
42–3
Final
Florida Atlantic
4-7·American Athletic· Elo 1263
FAU StadiumConference gameClosing line: ECU +-7 · ECU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 21 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 42 |
| FAU | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Team stats
ECUthis game · better side highlightedFAU
524
Total yards
338258
Passing yards
299266
Rushing yards
3928
First downs
2112-17 · 71%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FAU 1263
ECU 1491
Projected spread
FAU +6.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
ECU
69% to win
Market spread
FAU +7
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
31%
FAU · market 31%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FAU Elo 1263, ECU Elo 1491) plus home-field advantage. That projects FAU +6.7 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FAU (top)ECU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FAU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- ECU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. FAU rush defense (0.25 allowed) — edge FAU.
- FAU pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. ECU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge FAU.
- ECU pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. FAU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ECU.
Drive-by-drive
ECU 6/12 scoring drives← own end zone →FAU 1/12 scoring drives
ECUTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
FAUFUM1 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
ECUTD1 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ECU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ECU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic?
East Carolina 42, Florida Atlantic 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ECU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.