East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsFAU
- Q2 0:14ECUKatin Houser 7 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)42–3
- Q2 3:10ECURion Roseborough 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)35–3
- Q2 10:54ECUKatin Houser 4 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)28–3
- Q1 1:00FAUGarrison Smith 33 Yd Field Goal 21–3
- Q1 7:04ECUBrock Spalding 22 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)21–0
- Q1 10:10ECUDesirrio Riles 27 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:27ECUMarlon Gunn Jr. 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassKatin Houser 20/29, 258 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMarlon Gunn Jr. 14 CAR, 130 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDesirrio Riles 7 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCaden Veltkamp 19/31, 183 YDS, 2 INT
- RushGemari Sands 9 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecEaston Messer 10 REC, 86 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic?
East Carolina 42, Florida Atlantic 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
| ECU | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 512 | Total yards | 338 |
| 258 | Passing yards | 299 |
| 254 | Rushing yards | 39 |
| 28 | First downs | 21 |
| 12-17 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 20/30 | Comp/Att | 31/51 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 11-87 | Penalties | 5-38 |
| 34:39 | Possession | 25:21 |
Costliest call
Q4 15:00 FAU go for it on 4th & 8 at FAU 28. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q2 0:14ECUKatin Houser 7 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)42–3
- Q2 3:10ECURion Roseborough 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)35–3
- Q2 10:54ECUKatin Houser 4 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)28–3
- Q1 1:00FAUGarrison Smith 33 Yd Field Goal 21–3
- Q1 7:04ECUBrock Spalding 22 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)21–0
- Q1 10:10ECUDesirrio Riles 27 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Nick Mazzie Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:27ECUMarlon Gunn Jr. 1 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1263, ECU Elo 1491 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU +6.7 (34% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ECU | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.8 (#46) | CORE overall | -13.1 (#103) |
| +2 / -5 | offense / defense | -1 / +12 |
| 2.48 | points / drive | 2.19 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 3.05 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →