Duquesne vs. Akron: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Duquesne0-1

07

Akron0-3

▸0051

Final

InfoCision Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
DUQU	0	0	7	0	7
AKR	10	28	7	6	51

DUQUTeam statsAKR

230Total yards514

52Pass249

178Rush265

12First downs26

6-163rd down5-11

3Turnovers1

33:18Possession26:42

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:07AKRMatthew Schramm 41 Yd Field Goal 7–51
• Q4 13:13AKRMatthew Schramm 23 Yd Field Goal 7–48
• Q3 5:20DUQULogan Kushner 1 Yd Run (Matt Marcinko Kick)7–45
• Q3 7:05AKRTim Grear Jr. 15 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)0–45
• Q2 0:24AKRJordan Gant 8 Yd Run (Owen Wiley Kick)0–38
• Q2 8:34AKRJordan Gant 9 Yd Run (Owen Wiley Kick)0–31
• Q2 11:18AKRMalcom DeWalt IV 22 Yd Interception Return (Owen Wiley Kick)0–24
• Q2 12:11AKRKyan Mason 20 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)0–17
• Q1 0:41AKROwen Wiley 27 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 8:02AKRJordan Gant 17 Yd Run (Owen Wiley Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

AKR −10.5

Against the number

AKR covered

line AKR −10.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

DUQU aheadAKR ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = DUQU ahead, below = AKR ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

AKR −10.5

Closing total

51.5

Model line

—

Actual result

DUQU 7 – 51 AKR

Leaders

Duquesne

• PassTyler Riddell 8/21, 52 YDS, 2 INT
• RushNess Davis 11 CAR, 102 YDS
• RecJermaine Johnson 2 REC, 17 YDS

Akron

• PassBen Finley 13/23, 219 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushJordan Gant 13 CAR, 161 YDS, 3 TD
• RecMyles Walker 5 REC, 65 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

10.9sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

135

Points / snap

0.43

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

AKR up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

AKR went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas State vs Southeast Missouri State45-0WMichigan State vs Richmond45-14WSoutheast Missouri State vs Lindenwood45-7WMontana State vs Stetson57-20WMissouri State vs Utah Tech59-14

Fourth downs

15 calls

AKR gave up 1.0 points to the model on fourth down.DUQU 8/8 · AKR 3/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Duquesne vs. Akron?

Duquesne 7, Akron 51.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (AKR) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

DUQU

AKR

27%

Success rate

56%

-0.59

EPA / pass

0.22

0.26

EPA / rush

0.42

26%

Early-down success

59%

21%

Pass success

49%

32%

Rush success

64%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

20%

16%

Stuffed rush rate

8%

44%

Pass rate

48%

5.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.3

DUQU

5.6 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

AKR

5.3 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

DUQU		AKR
230	Total yards	514
52	Passing yards	249
178	Rushing yards	265
12	First downs	26
6-16	3rd down	5-11
0-2	4th down	0-0
9/25	Comp/Att	16/32
2.1	Yards per pass	7.8
4.5	Yards per rush	7.6
3	Turnovers	1
2-10	Penalties	6-55
33:18	Possession	26:42

Fourth downs

15 calls

DUQU

8/8 with the model

nothing given up

AKR

3/6 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 9:44 AKR punt on 4th & 4 at DUQU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.51 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

DUQU 2/14 scoring drives← own end zone →AKR 8/13 scoring drives

AKRINT8 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 11Q1

AKRPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 45Q1

DUQUDOWNS4 pl, -3 yds· own 20Q1

AKRTD1 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 22Q1

AKRPUNT4 pl, -9 yds· own 46Q1

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 19Q1

AKRFG8 pl, 50 yds· own 41Q1

DUQUINT8 pl, 36 yds· own 3Q1

AKRTD4 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q2

DUQUTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

DUQUPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q2

AKRTD4 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q2

DUQUUncateg12 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q2

AKRTD7 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2

DUQUEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

DUQUDOWNS10 pl, 71 yds· own 25Q3

AKRTD6 pl, 96 yds· own 4Q3

DUQUTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

AKRPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 30Q3

DUQUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 6Q3

AKRFG9 pl, 33 yds· opp 38Q3

DUQUPUNT5 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4

AKRFG10 pl, 47 yds· own 30Q4

DUQUPUNT6 pl, 23 yds· own 25Q4

AKRUncateg3 pl, 12 yds· own 9Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:07AKRMatthew Schramm 41 Yd Field Goal 7–51
• Q4 13:13AKRMatthew Schramm 23 Yd Field Goal 7–48
• Q3 5:20DUQULogan Kushner 1 Yd Run (Matt Marcinko Kick)7–45
• Q3 7:05AKRTim Grear Jr. 15 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)0–45
• Q2 0:24AKRJordan Gant 8 Yd Run (Owen Wiley Kick)0–38
• Q2 8:34AKRJordan Gant 9 Yd Run (Owen Wiley Kick)0–31
• Q2 11:18AKRMalcom DeWalt IV 22 Yd Interception Return (Owen Wiley Kick)0–24
• Q2 12:11AKRKyan Mason 20 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)0–17
• Q1 0:41AKROwen Wiley 27 Yd Field Goal 0–10
• Q1 8:02AKRJordan Gant 17 Yd Run (Owen Wiley Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →