Colorado State vs. Washington: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsWASH
- Q4 6:57WASHJonah Coleman 3 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)21–38
- Q4 12:11WASHGrady Gross 24 Yd Field Goal 21–31
- Q3 3:01WASHDenzel Boston 12 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)21–28
- Q3 8:01CSUJaxxon Warren 27 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Isaiah Hankins Kick)21–21
- Q3 11:17WASHKade Eldridge 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)14–21
- Q2 0:10CSUJalen Dupree 15 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)14–14
- Q2 10:43WASHAdam Mohammed 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:47CSUTahj Bullock 2 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08WASHJonah Coleman 26 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WASH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.6
- CSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassBrayden Fowler-Nicolosi 17/32, 180 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJalen Dupree 15 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaxxon Warren 6 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDemond Williams Jr. 18/24, 226 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJonah Coleman 24 CAR, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDenzel Boston 5 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWASH up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:01CSU +22%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jaxxon Warren for 27 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q3 3:01WASH +21%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for 12 yds for a TD Colorado State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dylan Phelps) declined (Grady Gross KICK)
- Q2 0:10CSU +19%
Jalen Dupree run for 15 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q3 11:17WASH +18%
Kade Eldridge run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
- Q2 10:43WASH +15%
Adam Mohammed run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
- Q1 6:47CSU +13%
Tahj Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Washington?
Colorado State 21, Washington 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
| CSU | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 265 | Total yards | 509 |
| 180 | Passing yards | 226 |
| 85 | Rushing yards | 283 |
| 17 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 3-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/33 | Comp/Att | 18/24 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-20 | Penalties | 6-34 |
| 23:16 | Possession | 36:44 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:22 CSU go for it on 4th & 10 at CSU 39. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:57WASHJonah Coleman 3 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)21–38
- Q4 12:11WASHGrady Gross 24 Yd Field Goal 21–31
- Q3 3:01WASHDenzel Boston 12 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)21–28
- Q3 8:01CSUJaxxon Warren 27 Yd pass from Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Isaiah Hankins Kick)21–21
- Q3 11:17WASHKade Eldridge 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)14–21
- Q2 0:10CSUJalen Dupree 15 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)14–14
- Q2 10:43WASHAdam Mohammed 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:47CSUTahj Bullock 2 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08WASHJonah Coleman 26 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WASH Elo 1585, CSU Elo 1382 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WASH -10.5 (76% to win) — 11.5 points clear of CSU's market line of -22. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CSU | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.4 (#123) | CORE overall | +21.7 (#11) |
| -8 / +12 | offense / defense | +13 / -9 |
| 1.58 | points / drive | 3.06 |
| 2.91 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →