Husky Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| WASH | 7 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 38 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WASH 1585
CSU 1382
Projected spread
WASH -10.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
WASH
78% to win
Market spread
WASH -22
sportsbook line
Model edge
CSU
11.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
WASH · market 91%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WASH Elo 1585, CSU Elo 1382) plus home-field advantage. That projects WASH -10.5 (78% to win) — 11.5 points of value on CSU versus the market line of -22.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WASH (top)CSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WASH 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. WASH rush defense (-0.03 allowed) — edge CSU.
- WASH rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. CSU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge WASH.
- CSU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. WASH pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge WASH.
Drive-by-drive
CSU 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →WASH 6/11 scoring drives
CSUPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 28Q1
WASHTD6 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1
CSUTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WASH up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
WASH went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Washington?
Colorado State 21, Washington 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WASH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.