Independence StadiumNeutral site
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| LT | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 23 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LT 1429
CCU 1165
Projected spread
LT -10.6
neutral site
Model pick
LT
78% to win
Market spread
LT -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
LT · market 74%
Our model blends Elo ratings (LT Elo 1429, CCU Elo 1165) on a neutral field. That projects LT -10.6 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelCCU 22% · LT 78%
Market consensusCCU 26% · LT 74%
Pick: LT · 5 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
CCU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedLT
Offense
0.09
PPA / play
0.1437%
Success rate
Key matchups · Pro
- LT pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. CCU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge CCU.
- CCU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. LT rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge CCU.
- LT rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. CCU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge CCU.
Drive-by-drive
CCU 2/18 scoring drives← own end zone →LT 5/18 scoring drives
LTINT4 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1
CCUMISS8 pl, 46 yds· own 42Q1
LTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CCU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
85%
CCU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech?
Coastal Carolina 14, Louisiana Tech 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had LT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.