Tue, Dec 30, 7:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| LT | 0 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (LT Elo 1429, CCU Elo 1165) on a neutral field. That projects LT -10.6 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pick: LT · 5 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
CCU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Coastal Carolina 14, Louisiana Tech 23.
Yes — the model's pick (LT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had LT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 52 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Tad Hudson pass complete to Dominic Knicely for 20 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
Trey Kukuk pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 20 yds to the LT 49 for a 1ST down
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