Dix StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
| KENT | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
KENT 972
CMU 1293
Projected spread
KENT +10.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
CMU
78% to win
Market spread
KENT +7.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
CMU
2.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
22%
KENT · market 27%
Our model blends Elo ratings (KENT Elo 972, CMU Elo 1293) plus home-field advantage. That projects KENT +10.4 (22% to win) — 2.9 points of value on CMU versus the market line of +7.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
KENT (top)CMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KENT 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- CMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. KENT pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge CMU.
- KENT pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. CMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge KENT.
- CMU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. KENT rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge KENT.
Drive-by-drive
CMU 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →KENT 2/10 scoring drives
KENTPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 26Q1
CMUTD18 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
KENTFUM5 pl, -1 yds· own 35Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CMU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
CMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Central Michigan vs. Kent State?
Central Michigan 28, Kent State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had CMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.