Campbell vs. NC State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Campbell0-1

0010

NC State3-2

▸0056

Final

Carter-Finley Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
CAMP	7	0	0	3	10
NCSU	21	28	7	0	56

CAMPTeam statsNCSU

188Total yards607

121Pass371

67Rush236

13First downs28

4-163rd down3-7

1Turnovers2

33:00Possession27:00

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:09CAMPAlex Crabb 46 Yd Field Goal 10–56
• Q3 6:06NCSUJayden Scott 2 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–56
• Q2 0:43NCSUJustin Joly 10 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–49
• Q2 2:28NCSUJayden Scott 14 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–42
• Q2 8:33NCSUTerrell Anderson 34 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–35
• Q2 13:45NCSUHollywood Smothers 16 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–28
• Q1 2:48NCSUCody Hardy 37 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–21
• Q1 8:13NCSUHollywood Smothers 59 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–14
• Q1 8:54CAMPMike Chandler II 13 Yd pass from Kamden Sixkiller (Alex Crabb Kick)7–7
• Q1 13:03NCSUWill Wilson 2 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

NCSU −42

Against the number

NCSU covered

line NCSU −42

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NCSU 100%50%CAMP 100%

Kickoff147 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NCSU (top)CAMP (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NCSU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NCSU −42

Closing total

61.0

Model line

—

Actual result

CAMP 10 – 56 NCSU

Leaders

Campbell

• PassKamden Sixkiller 12/22, 87 YDS, 1 TD
• RushJJ Cowan 12 CAR, 48 YDS
• RecMike Chandler II 2 REC, 24 YDS, 1 TD

NC State

• PassCJ Bailey 20/23, 337 YDS, 4 TD
• RushHollywood Smothers 4 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
• RecNoah Rogers 3 REC, 62 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

129

Points / snap

0.51

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NCSU up 49 entering the 4th quarter. Across 72 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NCSU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WPenn State vs Delaware63-7WCentral Arkansas vs Texas College70-2WDrake vs South Dakota State70-7WPenn State vs Massachusetts63-0WSouthern Illinois vs Western Illinois63-0

Fourth downs

15 calls

CAMP gave up 2.4 points to the model on fourth down.CAMP 7/10 · NCSU 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Campbell vs. NC State?

Campbell 10, NC State 56.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NCSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

CAMP

NCSU

28%

Success rate

59%

-0.03

EPA / pass

0.71

-0.26

EPA / rush

0.53

30%

Early-down success

61%

31%

Pass success

67%

23%

Rush success

50%

2%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

20%

33%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

54%

Pass rate

56%

6.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.0

CAMP

6.9 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

NCSU

7.0 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

CAMP		NCSU
188	Total yards	607
121	Passing yards	371
67	Rushing yards	236
13	First downs	28
4-16	3rd down	3-7
0-2	4th down	0-1
20/32	Comp/Att	25/34
3.8	Yards per pass	10.9
2.0	Yards per rush	9.1
1	Turnovers	2
7-65	Penalties	7-76
33:00	Possession	27:00

Fourth downs

15 calls

CAMP

7/10 with the model

−2.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

NCSU

2/3 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 1:01 CAMP punt on 4th & 2 at NCSU 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.44 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

CAMP 2/14 scoring drives← own end zone →NCSU 8/12 scoring drives

NCSUTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

CAMPPUNT9 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q1

CAMPTD2 pl, 14 yds· opp 14Q1

NCSUTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

CAMPPUNT6 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

NCSUTD5 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1

CAMPPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1

NCSUTD4 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q1

CAMPDOWNS7 pl, 39 yds· own 35Q2

NCSUTD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2

CAMPPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q2

NCSUTD7 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q2

CAMPPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2

NCSUTD3 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q2

CAMPEND1 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2

CAMPDOWNS10 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q3

NCSUTD9 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q3

CAMPPUNT8 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q3

NCSUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q3

CAMPPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 42Q4

NCSUPUNT7 pl, 29 yds· own 13Q4

CAMPPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 15Q4

NCSUINT5 pl, 11 yds· opp 43Q4

CAMPFG4 pl, 12 yds· opp 41Q4

NCSUPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q4

CAMPEND3 pl, 1 yds· own 22Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:09CAMPAlex Crabb 46 Yd Field Goal 10–56
• Q3 6:06NCSUJayden Scott 2 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–56
• Q2 0:43NCSUJustin Joly 10 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–49
• Q2 2:28NCSUJayden Scott 14 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–42
• Q2 8:33NCSUTerrell Anderson 34 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–35
• Q2 13:45NCSUHollywood Smothers 16 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–28
• Q1 2:48NCSUCody Hardy 37 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–21
• Q1 8:13NCSUHollywood Smothers 59 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–14
• Q1 8:54CAMPMike Chandler II 13 Yd pass from Kamden Sixkiller (Alex Crabb Kick)7–7
• Q1 13:03NCSUWill Wilson 2 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →