California vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CALTeam statsHAW
- Q4 0:10HAWNick Cenacle 22 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)31–35
- Q4 1:57CALJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)31–28
- Q4 7:19HAWBrandon White 17 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)24–28
- Q4 8:56CALChase Meyer 22 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q4 13:50HAWPofele Ashlock 3 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Micah Alejado Pass to Cam Barfield for Two-Point Conversion)21–21
- Q3 5:58HAWKansei Matsuzawa 39 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 0:27HAWKansei Matsuzawa 29 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 3:57HAWPofele Ashlock 13 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:38CALAnthony League 8 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:55CALKendrick Raphael 19 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:01CALJacob De Jesus 41 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 28/39, 337 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKendrick Raphael 17 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJacob De Jesus 9 REC, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMicah Alejado 32/46, 274 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLandon Sims 9 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecPofele Ashlock 14 REC, 123 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. Hawai'i?
California 31, Hawai'i 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HAW) was correct.
| CAL | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 481 | Total yards | 395 |
| 337 | Passing yards | 302 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 93 |
| 28 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-9 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 28/39 | Comp/Att | 34/49 |
| 8.6 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-85 | Penalties | 8-56 |
| 29:40 | Possession | 30:20 |
- Q4 0:10HAWNick Cenacle 22 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)31–35
- Q4 1:57CALJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)31–28
- Q4 7:19HAWBrandon White 17 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)24–28
- Q4 8:56CALChase Meyer 22 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q4 13:50HAWPofele Ashlock 3 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Micah Alejado Pass to Cam Barfield for Two-Point Conversion)21–21
- Q3 5:58HAWKansei Matsuzawa 39 Yd Field Goal 21–13
- Q2 0:27HAWKansei Matsuzawa 29 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 3:57HAWPofele Ashlock 13 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:38CALAnthony League 8 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:55CALKendrick Raphael 19 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:01CALJacob De Jesus 41 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1459, CAL Elo 1360 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW -6.4 (67% to win) — 4.9 points clear of HAW's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CAL | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.6 (#85) | CORE overall | -6.2 (#82) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | +1 / +7 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 2.21 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 2.06 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →