California vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CALTeam statsBC
- Q4 1:30CALMason Mini 51 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)28–24
- Q4 13:35BCTurbo Richard 71 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)21–24
- Q4 13:47CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:37BCLuca Lombardo 52 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 3:46CALJacob De Jesus 5 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:05CALLJ Johnson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:47BCTurbo Richard 27 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:56BCDylan Lonergan 7 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CAL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.8 vs 3rd & 3.9
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 22/34, 254 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKendrick Raphael 25 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrond Grizzell 5 REC, 78 YDS
- PassDylan Lonergan 21/37, 197 YDS, 2 INT
- RushTurbo Richard 15 CAR, 171 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLewis Bond 7 REC, 77 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:56BC +48%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 8 yds to the CAL 7
- Q4 4:43CAL +19%
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass complete to Jordan King for 10 yds to the CAL 22 for a 1ST down
- Q4 9:47CAL +17%
Kendrick Raphael run for 8 yds to the BC 30
- Q3 0:08CAL +12%
Boston College Penalty, off-side (Quintayvious Hutchins) to the BC 5
- Q4 13:47CAL +12%
Kendrick Raphael run for 2 yds for a TD (Chase Meyer KICK)
- Q4 13:35BC +12%
Turbo Richard 71 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. Boston College?
California 28, Boston College 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CAL | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 372 | Total yards | 375 |
| 254 | Passing yards | 197 |
| 118 | Rushing yards | 178 |
| 23 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-12 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 22/34 | Comp/Att | 21/37 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 8.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 11-78 | Penalties | 15-109 |
| 35:15 | Possession | 24:45 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:11 CAL punt on 4th & 3 at BC 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:30CALMason Mini 51 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)28–24
- Q4 13:35BCTurbo Richard 71 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)21–24
- Q4 13:47CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:37BCLuca Lombardo 52 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 3:46CALJacob De Jesus 5 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:05CALLJ Johnson Jr. 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:47BCTurbo Richard 27 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:56BCDylan Lonergan 7 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1470, CAL Elo 1447 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC -3.3 (60% to win) — 2.7 points clear of CAL's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CAL | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.6 (#85) | CORE overall | -10.0 (#95) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | -1 / +9 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 1.81 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 3.19 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →