Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)Conference gameClosing line: BC -6 · CAL covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
| BC | 14 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
Team stats
CALthis game · better side highlightedBC
375
Total yards
375254
Passing yards
197121
Rushing yards
17823
First downs
206-12 · 50%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BC 1470
CAL 1447
Projected spread
BC -3.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
BC
60% to win
Market spread
BC -6
sportsbook line
Model edge
CAL
2.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
60%
BC · market 66%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BC Elo 1470, CAL Elo 1447) plus home-field advantage. That projects BC -3.3 (60% to win) — 2.7 points of value on CAL versus the market line of -6.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BC (top)CAL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BC 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- CAL pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. BC pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge BC.
- BC rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. CAL rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge CAL.
- CAL rush offense (-0.04 PPA) vs. BC rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge BC.
Drive-by-drive
CAL 4/11 scoring drives← own end zone →BC 4/10 scoring drives
BCTD12 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q1
CALINT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q1
BCTD2 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BC up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
BC went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. Boston College?
California 28, Boston College 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BC pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.