BYU vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsTTU
- Q4 4:39TTUStone Harrington 28 Yd Field Goal 7–34
- Q4 7:04TTUCoy Eakin 28 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)7–31
- Q4 12:49TTUStone Harrington 44 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 3:21TTUCameron Dickey 11 Yd Run (Behren Morton Pass to Terrance Carter Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)7–21
- Q2 0:21TTUStone Harrington 40 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 10:42TTUCoy Eakin 33 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:56TTUStone Harrington 23 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 4:58BYULJ Martin 10 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBear Bachmeier 16/27, 115 YDS, 2 INT
- RushLJ Martin 19 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecParker Kingston 4 REC, 44 YDS
- PassBehren Morton 20/33, 215 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJ'Koby Williams 15 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecReggie Virgil 8 REC, 86 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:58BYU +18%
Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush middle for 10 yards gain to the TTU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 10:42TTU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Morton pass complete deep right to #3 C.Eakin caught at BYU01, for 33 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automat…
- Q3 3:21TTU +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Dickey rush right for 11 yards gain to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #7 T.Carter Jr. pass attempt Successful
- Q2 0:21TTU +11%
#48 S.Harrington field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD
- Q2 14:56TTU +8%
#48 S.Harrington field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD
- Q3 4:44BYU +5%
Shotgun #30 S.Moa rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BYU16 (#13 B.Roberts; #31 D.Bailey)
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Texas Tech?
BYU 7, Texas Tech 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
| BYU | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 200 | Total yards | 374 |
| 137 | Passing yards | 215 |
| 63 | Rushing yards | 159 |
| 14 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 17/29 | Comp/Att | 20/33 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 28:06 | Possession | 31:54 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:39 TTU field goal on 4th & 2 at BYU 9. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:39TTUStone Harrington 28 Yd Field Goal 7–34
- Q4 7:04TTUCoy Eakin 28 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)7–31
- Q4 12:49TTUStone Harrington 44 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 3:21TTUCameron Dickey 11 Yd Run (Behren Morton Pass to Terrance Carter Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)7–21
- Q2 0:21TTUStone Harrington 40 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 10:42TTUCoy Eakin 33 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:56TTUStone Harrington 23 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 4:58BYULJ Martin 10 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 2061, BYU Elo 1797 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects TTU -10.6 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BYU | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.0 (#20) | CORE overall | +33.7 (#5) |
| +10 / -8 | offense / defense | +4 / -30 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 2.82 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 0.95 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →