BYU
11-1·Big 12· Elo 1797
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| TTU | 0 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TTU Elo 2061, BYU Elo 1797) on a neutral field. That projects TTU -10.6 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TTU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
BYU 7, Texas Tech 34.
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Morton pass complete short right to #3 C.Eakin caught at BYU29, for 28 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:03, 1ST DOWN #48 S.Harrington kick attempt good (H: #41 J.Burgess, LS: #89 J.Llewellyn)
(04:50) Shotgun #2 B.Morton pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Douglas thrown to BYU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Morton pass complete short middle to #1 R.Virgil caught at TTU44, for 30 yards to the BYU45 (#1 T.Alexander), 1ST DOWN
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