BYU
9-1·Big 12· Elo 1772
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | 7 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 26 |
| CIN | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CIN Elo 1578, BYU Elo 1772) plus home-field advantage. That projects CIN +5.4 (35% to win) — 2.9 points of value on BYU versus the market line of +2.5.
BYU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
BYU 26, Cincinnati 14.
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BYU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #4 C.Allen caught at BYU17, for 5 yards loss to the BYU22 fumbled by #4 C.Allen at BYU17 recovered by BYU #16 I.Glasker at BYU22, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short left to #4 C.Allen caught at BYU17, for 0 yards to the BYU17 (#15 T.Beasley))
(14:53) Shotgun #3 T.Walker rush middle for 0 yards to the BYU03 (#57 K.Tanuvasa; #13 T.Akana), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #9 J.Caldwell caught at BYU03, for 19 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:37, 1ST DOWN #99 S.Rusnak kick attempt good (H: #31 M.Fletcher, LS: #48 E.Stein)
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