BYU vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsCIN
- Q4 0:56BYULJ Martin 33 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–14
- Q4 4:37CINJeff Caldwell 19 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)20–14
- Q4 14:07BYUWill Ferrin 32 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q3 8:26BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)17–7
- Q2 1:56BYUWill Ferrin 31 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 6:34CINCyrus Allen 27 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:39BYUBear Bachmeier 6 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBear Bachmeier 15/25, 127 YDS
- RushLJ Martin 32 CAR, 222 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLJ Martin 3 REC, 44 YDS
- PassBrendan Sorsby 25/38, 300 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushBrendan Sorsby 8 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecCyrus Allen 5 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:34CIN +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete deep left to #4 C.Allen caught at BYU02, for 27 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 8:26BYU +18%
#4 L.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 4:39BYU +16%
Shotgun #47 B.Bachmeier rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CIN00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 4:37CIN +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Sorsby pass complete short middle to #9 J.Caldwell caught at BYU03, for 19 yards to the BYU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 4:25BYU +10%
Shotgun #4 L.Martin rush left for 7 yards gain to the BYU32 (#55 I.Rogers; #46 A.Peek Jr.)
- Q2 1:56BYU +9%
#44 W.Ferrin field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Cincinnati?
BYU 26, Cincinnati 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
| BYU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 392 | Total yards | 387 |
| 127 | Passing yards | 300 |
| 265 | Rushing yards | 87 |
| 24 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 15/25 | Comp/Att | 25/38 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-21 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 38:25 | Possession | 21:35 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:08 BYU punt on 4th & 7 at CIN 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.17 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:56BYULJ Martin 33 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–14
- Q4 4:37CINJeff Caldwell 19 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)20–14
- Q4 14:07BYUWill Ferrin 32 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q3 8:26BYULJ Martin 1 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)17–7
- Q2 1:56BYUWill Ferrin 31 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 6:34CINCyrus Allen 27 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:39BYUBear Bachmeier 6 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CIN Elo 1578, BYU Elo 1772 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CIN +5.4 (37% to win) — 2.9 points clear of BYU's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BYU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.0 (#20) | CORE overall | +6.7 (#50) |
| +10 / -8 | offense / defense | +12 / +5 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →