| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| OHIO | 14 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OHIO Elo 1587, BGSU Elo 1428) plus home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -8.8 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
OHIO up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Bowling Green 20, Ohio 35.
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OHIO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Drew Pyne pass intercepted Cameron Hollobaugh return for 71 yds for a TD Bowling Green Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the BGSU 0 (Brack Peacock KICK)
Drew Pyne pass intercepted Tank Pearson return for 37 yds to the OHIO 37
Parker Navarro run for a loss of 6 yards to the BGSU 45 Parker Navarro fumbled, recovered by BGSU MJ Cannon
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