Bowling Green vs. Ohio: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsOHIO
- Q4 6:20OHIOParker Navarro 34 Yd Run (Brack Peacock Kick)20–35
- Q4 9:41BGSUChris McMillian 15 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)20–28
- Q3 5:42OHIOParker Navarro 5 Yd Run (Brack Peacock Kick)13–28
- Q2 0:45BGSUJackson Kleather 33 Yd Field Goal 13–21
- Q2 10:08OHIOChase Hendricks 25 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock Kick)10–21
- Q1 1:41BGSUJackson Kleather 26 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 5:35OHIOMason Williams 19 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:02BGSUKaderris Roberts 27 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jackson Kleather Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:59OHIOCameron Hollobaugh 71 Yd Interception Return (Brack Peacock Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BGSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OHIO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassDrew Pyne 19/29, 170 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushChris McMillian 11 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecFinn Hogan 3 REC, 51 YDS
- PassParker Navarro 17/25, 208 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushSieh Bangura 18 CAR, 115 YDS
- RecMason Williams 8 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:02OHIO +38%
Sieh Bangura run for 6 yds to the OHIO 39 for a 1ST down
- Q2 0:00BGSU +23%
Brack Peacock 38 yd FG MISSED
- Q2 10:08OHIO +19%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 25 yds for a TD (Brack Peacock KICK)
- Q4 9:41BGSU +19%
Chris McMillian run for 15 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
- Q1 5:35OHIO +17%
Parker Navarro pass complete to Mason Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Brack Peacock KICK)
- Q1 10:02BGSU +14%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Kaderris Roberts for 27 yds for a TD (Jackson Kleather KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Ohio?
Bowling Green 20, Ohio 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
| BGSU | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| 350 | Total yards | 439 |
| 170 | Passing yards | 208 |
| 180 | Rushing yards | 231 |
| 21 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 19/29 | Comp/Att | 17/25 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 30:31 | Possession | 29:29 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:30 OHIO punt on 4th & 3 at OHIO 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:20OHIOParker Navarro 34 Yd Run (Brack Peacock Kick)20–35
- Q4 9:41BGSUChris McMillian 15 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)20–28
- Q3 5:42OHIOParker Navarro 5 Yd Run (Brack Peacock Kick)13–28
- Q2 0:45BGSUJackson Kleather 33 Yd Field Goal 13–21
- Q2 10:08OHIOChase Hendricks 25 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock Kick)10–21
- Q1 1:41BGSUJackson Kleather 26 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 5:35OHIOMason Williams 19 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (Brack Peacock Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:02BGSUKaderris Roberts 27 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jackson Kleather Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:59OHIOCameron Hollobaugh 71 Yd Interception Return (Brack Peacock Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OHIO Elo 1587, BGSU Elo 1428 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OHIO -8.8 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBowling Green leads 33–28–1 · Ohio has won 3 straight · 31% have been one-possession games
| BGSU | OHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.8 (#122) | CORE overall | -1.1 (#66) |
| -16 / +3 | offense / defense | +1 / +2 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 2.20 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →