Acrisure StadiumConference gameClosing line: PITT -6.5 · PITT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| PITT | 10 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 48 |
Team stats
BCthis game · better side highlightedPITT
216
Total yards
503189
Passing yards
33127
Rushing yards
17211
First downs
314-12 · 33%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
PITT 1511
BC 1462
Projected spread
PITT -4.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
PITT
63% to win
Market spread
PITT -6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
BC
2.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
63%
PITT · market 68%
Our model blends Elo ratings (PITT Elo 1511, BC Elo 1462) plus home-field advantage. That projects PITT -4.4 (63% to win) — 2.1 points of value on BC versus the market line of -6.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
PITT (top)BC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: PITT 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- BC rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. PITT rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge BC.
- PITT rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. BC rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge BC.
- PITT pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. BC pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge BC.
Drive-by-drive
BC 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →PITT 8/12 scoring drives
BCPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
PITTTD11 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1
BCDOWNS7 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
PITT up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 103 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
PITT went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Pittsburgh?
Boston College 7, Pittsburgh 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had PITT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.