Boston College vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BCTeam statsPITT
- Q4 1:57BCKaelan Chudzinski 3 Yd pass from Shaker Reisig (Luca Lombardo Kick)7–48
- Q4 8:28PITTTrey Butkowski 47 Yd Field Goal 0–48
- Q3 1:39PITTZion Fowler-El 18 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–45
- Q3 9:08PITTDeuce Spann 10 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:10PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 6 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–31
- Q2 1:56PITTJuelz Goff 3 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–24
- Q2 6:25PITTKenny Johnson 12 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–17
- Q1 0:39PITTTrey Butkowski 31 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:22PITTJustin Holmes 14 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PITT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 6.2
- PassDylan Lonergan 9/18, 89 YDS
- RushJordan McDonald 5 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecKaelan Chudzinski 3 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMason Heintschel 30/41, 323 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJa'Kyrian Turner 12 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKenny Johnson 9 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPITT up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 103 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Pittsburgh?
Boston College 7, Pittsburgh 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
| BC | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 216 | Total yards | 503 |
| 189 | Passing yards | 331 |
| 27 | Rushing yards | 172 |
| 11 | First downs | 31 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 14/30 | Comp/Att | 32/45 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-57 | Penalties | 8-70 |
| 20:52 | Possession | 39:08 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:58 PITT punt on 4th & 4 at BC 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.71 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:57BCKaelan Chudzinski 3 Yd pass from Shaker Reisig (Luca Lombardo Kick)7–48
- Q4 8:28PITTTrey Butkowski 47 Yd Field Goal 0–48
- Q3 1:39PITTZion Fowler-El 18 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–45
- Q3 9:08PITTDeuce Spann 10 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–38
- Q2 0:10PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 6 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–31
- Q2 1:56PITTJuelz Goff 3 Yd Run (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–24
- Q2 6:25PITTKenny Johnson 12 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–17
- Q1 0:39PITTTrey Butkowski 31 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 7:22PITTJustin Holmes 14 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Trey Butkowski Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1511, BC Elo 1462 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT -4.4 (63% to win) — 2.1 points clear of BC's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPittsburgh leads 19–16 · 43% have been one-possession games
| BC | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.0 (#95) | CORE overall | +16.8 (#23) |
| -1 / +9 | offense / defense | +4 / -13 |
| 1.81 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 1.96 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →