Sat, Oct 4, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| PITT | 10 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 48 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (PITT Elo 1511, BC Elo 1462) plus home-field advantage. That projects PITT -4.4 (63% to win) — 2.1 points of value on BC versus the market line of -6.5.
PITT up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 103 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Boston College 7, Pittsburgh 48.
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had PITT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 32 yds Jeremiah Franklin fumbled, recovered by BC Kyle Louis
Mason Heintschel pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 21 yds to the BC 17 for a 1ST down
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Reed Harris for 24 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST down
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