Boston College vs. Michigan State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BCTeam statsMSU
- 2OT 0:00MSUAidan Chiles 3 Yd Run (Aidan Chiles Pass to Omari Kelly for Two-Point Conversion)40–42
- 2OT 0:00BCTurbo Richard 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)40–34
- OT 0:00BCJeremiah Franklin 6 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)34–34
- OT 0:00MSUJay Coyne 5 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Martin Connington Kick)27–34
- Q4 1:16BCLuca Lombardo 38 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 4:08MSUMartin Connington 39 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q3 2:17MSUMartin Connington 50 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q3 7:00BCLuca Lombardo 37 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q3 12:50MSUNick Marsh 41 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Blake Sislo Kick)21–21
- Q2 0:31BCReed Harris 14 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)21–14
- Q2 5:40MSUMichael Masunas 3 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Blake Sislo Kick)14–14
- Q2 7:45BCJaedn Skeete 12 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:50BCTurbo Richard 8 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:23MSUNick Marsh 11 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Blake Sislo Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDylan Lonergan 34/45, 390 YDS, 4 TD
- RushTurbo Richard 13 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLewis Bond 11 REC, 90 YDS
- PassAidan Chiles 19/29, 231 YDS, 4 TD
- RushMakhi Frazier 17 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecNick Marsh 5 REC, 68 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- OT 0:00MSU +37%
Lewis Bond run for 7 yds to the MSU 18
- Q3 12:50MSU +24%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 41 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK)
- Q2 7:45BC +20%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 12 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
- Q2 12:50BC +20%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Turbo Richard for 8 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
- Q1 5:23MSU +19%
Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 11 yds for a TD (Blake Sislo KICK)
- Q3 2:17MSU +14%
Martin Connington 50 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Michigan State?
Boston College 40, Michigan State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BC | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 457 | Total yards | 380 |
| 390 | Passing yards | 231 |
| 67 | Rushing yards | 149 |
| 25 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 34/45 | Comp/Att | 19/29 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-59 | Penalties | 6-60 |
| 30:12 | Possession | 29:48 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:53 MSU punt on 4th & 1 at MSU 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00MSUAidan Chiles 3 Yd Run (Aidan Chiles Pass to Omari Kelly for Two-Point Conversion)40–42
- 2OT 0:00BCTurbo Richard 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)40–34
- OT 0:00BCJeremiah Franklin 6 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)34–34
- OT 0:00MSUJay Coyne 5 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Martin Connington Kick)27–34
- Q4 1:16BCLuca Lombardo 38 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- Q4 4:08MSUMartin Connington 39 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q3 2:17MSUMartin Connington 50 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q3 7:00BCLuca Lombardo 37 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q3 12:50MSUNick Marsh 41 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Blake Sislo Kick)21–21
- Q2 0:31BCReed Harris 14 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)21–14
- Q2 5:40MSUMichael Masunas 3 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Blake Sislo Kick)14–14
- Q2 7:45BCJaedn Skeete 12 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:50BCTurbo Richard 8 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Luca Lombardo Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:23MSUNick Marsh 11 Yd pass from Aidan Chiles (Blake Sislo Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSU Elo 1403, BC Elo 1508 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSU +1.8 (46% to win) — 5.3 points clear of BC's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBoston College leads 5–2–1 · 63% have been one-possession games
| BC | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.0 (#95) | CORE overall | -8.6 (#91) |
| -1 / +9 | offense / defense | -4 / +4 |
| 1.81 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 2.64 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →