Spartan StadiumClosing line: MSU -3.5 · BC covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT1 | OT2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 0 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 40 |
| MSU | 7 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 42 |
Team stats
BCthis game · better side highlightedMSU
457
Total yards
380390
Passing yards
23167
Rushing yards
14925
First downs
21Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MSU 1403
BC 1508
Projected spread
MSU +1.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
BC
55% to win
Market spread
MSU -3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
BC
5.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
45%
MSU · market 59%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MSU Elo 1403, BC Elo 1508) plus home-field advantage. That projects MSU +1.8 (45% to win) — 5.3 points of value on BC versus the market line of -3.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MSU (top)BC (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- MSU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. BC pass defense (0.39 allowed) — edge BC.
- BC rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. MSU rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MSU.
- BC pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. MSU pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge MSU.
Drive-by-drive
BC 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →MSU 5/9 scoring drives
BCPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
BCFUM4 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q1
MSUTD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
MSU win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Michigan State?
Boston College 40, Michigan State 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BC pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.