SoFi StadiumNeutral siteClosing line: WASH -10 · WASH covered
Sun, Dec 14, 1:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| WASH | 3 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
A comfortable Washington win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
Boise State never had a foothold. Washington (No. 15 8-4) dismantles Boise State (9-4), 38-10 at SoFi Stadium on a neutral field. Washington led from start to finish and never let Boise State within striking distance.
Washington struck first, Washington led 24-3 at the half and the final points came on a late score by Washington.
Washington won the turnover battle, 1 giveaways to Boise State's 5 and Washington's defense held Boise State to 185% below its usual output. Stacked together, it was never close.
Washington leaned on Demond Williams Jr. (215 passing yards, 4 TD), Jonah Coleman (85 rushing yards, 1 TD) and Denzel Boston (126 receiving yards, 1 TD). Max Cutforth went well above his season norm — 202 passing yards, 72% over his average.
Each bar is one regular-season game (official box). Max's 202 passing yds in the title game was well above his norm — the 75th percentile of his own year.
The closing line had Washington -10.0. Washington covered. The total was 55.5; the teams combined for 48, an under.
Washington cleared the bar with room to spare; Boise State goes back to the drawing board.
Boise State ran on 60% of plays on 1st down all season; in this game, 38% (n=29 such plays) — a sharp in-game departure from the norm.
Our model blends Elo ratings (WASH Elo 1801, BOIS Elo 1659) on a neutral field. That projects WASH -5.7 (66% to win) — 4.3 points of value on BOIS versus the market line of -10.
WASH up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Boise State 10, Washington 38.
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had WASH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Denzel Boston 78 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)
Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass intercepted by #0 L.Bryant at WAS00 QB hurried by #11 T.Uiagalelei, Touchback
Shotgun #14 M.Cutforth pass intercepted by #41 D.Lynch at WAS34 QB hurried by #2 R.Clark #41 D.Lynch return 57 yards to the BSU09, End Of Play
Key players' yardage vs their per-game season norm.
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