Boise State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsNEV
- Q4 3:09BOISD. Riley run for 1 yd, for a TD (C. Boomer KICK)24–3
- Q3 1:41BOISM. Madsen run for 1 yd, for a TD (C. Boomer KICK)17–3
- Q2 1:35BOISS. Gaines run for 2 yds, for a TD (C. Boomer KICK)10–3
- Q2 13:13BOISColton Boomer 21 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 3:50NEVJoe McFadden 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassMaddux Madsen 15/28, 175 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSire Gaines 17 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCam Bates 1 REC, 37 YDS
- PassCarter Jones 16/29, 145 YDS, 3 INT
- RushHerschel Turner 7 CAR, 77 YDS
- RecMarshaun Brown 4 REC, 35 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBOIS up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:50NEV +8%
#84 J.McFadden field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD
- Q2 10:18BOIS +5%
Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete short middle to #41 D.Thomas caught at BSU18, for 13 yards to the BSU16 (#6 J.Earby), 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Nevada?
Boise State 24, Nevada 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
| BOIS | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 309 | Total yards | 249 |
| 175 | Passing yards | 148 |
| 134 | Rushing yards | 101 |
| 21 | First downs | 15 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 18/31 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 8-71 |
| 35:58 | Possession | 24:02 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:30 NEV go for it on 4th & 17 at BOIS 24. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:09BOISD. Riley run for 1 yd, for a TD (C. Boomer KICK)24–3
- Q3 1:41BOISM. Madsen run for 1 yd, for a TD (C. Boomer KICK)17–3
- Q2 1:35BOISS. Gaines run for 2 yds, for a TD (C. Boomer KICK)10–3
- Q2 13:13BOISColton Boomer 21 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 3:50NEVJoe McFadden 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1190, BOIS Elo 1725 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV +19 (12% to win) — 2.0 points clear of NEV's market line of +21. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBoise State leads 20–6 · Boise State has won 3 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| BOIS | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#55) | CORE overall | -15.3 (#110) |
| -1 / -7 | offense / defense | -11 / +4 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 1.33 |
| 1.98 | allowed / drive | 2.49 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →