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Boise State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 25, 2:00 AM
Mackay StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| NEV | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NEV 1190
BOIS 1725
Projected spread
NEV +19
incl. home edge
Model pick
BOIS
92% to win
Market spread
NEV +21
sportsbook line
Model edge
NEV
2.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
8%
NEV · market 9%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEV Elo 1190, BOIS Elo 1725) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEV +19 (8% to win) — 2.0 points of value on NEV versus the market line of +21.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NEV (top)BOIS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NEV 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BOIS2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedNEV
Offense
0.20
PPA / play
0.0242%
Success rate
37%1.28
Explosiveness
1.203.66
Pts / opportunity
2.6779%
Power success
72%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.1936%
Success rate allowed
44%1.42
Explosiveness allowed
1.2017%
Havoc rate
14%19%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- NEV rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. BOIS rush defense (0.20 allowed) — edge BOIS.
- NEV pass offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. BOIS pass defense (0.08 allowed) — edge BOIS.
- BOIS pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. NEV pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge BOIS.
Drive-by-drive
BOIS 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →NEV 1/9 scoring drives
NEVDOWNS3 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1
BOISFG13 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q1
BOISPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 38Q1
NEVFG12 pl, 58 yds· own 20Q1
BOISPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 13Q2
NEVDOWNS8 pl, 26 yds· midfieldQ2
BOISINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 24Q2
NEVPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 39Q2
BOISTD13 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q2
NEVPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q2
BOISEND4 pl, 9 yds· own 30Q2
BOISPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
NEVPUNT9 pl, 24 yds· own 15Q3
BOISPUNT7 pl, 28 yds· own 26Q3
BOISTD4 pl, 6 yds· opp 6Q3
NEVUncateg3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
BOISDOWNS3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q4
NEVINT5 pl, 47 yds· own 28Q4
BOISTD15 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
NEVFUM5 pl, 26 yds· own 25Q4
BOISEND2 pl, -3 yds· own 49Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BOIS up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
BOIS went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Nevada?
Boise State 24, Nevada 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had BOIS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.