Boise State vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsAF
- Q4 2:08BOISDylan Riley 43 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)49–37
- Q4 2:26AFBruin Fleischmann 5 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)42–37
- Q4 5:18BOISDylan Riley 8 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)42–30
- Q4 9:44AFQuin Smith 12 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)35–30
- Q3 0:58BOISDylan Riley 75 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)35–24
- Q3 1:10AFJacob Medina 25 Yd Field Goal 28–24
- Q3 11:51BOISMalik Sherrod 40 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)28–21
- Q3 13:52AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)21–21
- Q2 4:52AFKemper Hodges 3 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)21–14
- Q2 10:25BOISMatt Lauter 3 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)21–7
- Q1 2:38BOISDylan Riley 34 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:09BOISDylan Riley 4 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:54AFDylan Carson 2 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BOIS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.9 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassMaddux Madsen 13/23, 276 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDylan Riley 19 CAR, 171 YDS, 4 TD
- RecLatrell Caples 5 REC, 87 YDS
- PassLiam Szarka 13/18, 246 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushLiam Szarka 20 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCade Harris 8 REC, 177 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBOIS up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:58BOIS +26%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Dylan Riley for 75 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q3 13:52AF +22%
Liam Szarka run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
- Q3 11:51BOIS +21%
Malik Sherrod run for 40 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q4 9:44AF +19%
Liam Szarka pass complete to Quin Smith for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q1 7:09BOIS +18%
Dylan Riley run for 4 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q1 11:54AF +18%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Air Force?
Boise State 49, Air Force 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
| BOIS | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 592 | Total yards | 514 |
| 310 | Passing yards | 246 |
| 282 | Rushing yards | 268 |
| 23 | First downs | 24 |
| 7-10 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/27 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 11.5 | Yards per pass | 12.3 |
| 9.1 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-107 | Penalties | 6-45 |
| 23:40 | Possession | 36:20 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:05 AF punt on 4th & 1 at AF 21. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:08BOISDylan Riley 43 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)49–37
- Q4 2:26AFBruin Fleischmann 5 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Jacob Medina Kick)42–37
- Q4 5:18BOISDylan Riley 8 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)42–30
- Q4 9:44AFQuin Smith 12 Yd pass from Liam Szarka (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)35–30
- Q3 0:58BOISDylan Riley 75 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)35–24
- Q3 1:10AFJacob Medina 25 Yd Field Goal 28–24
- Q3 11:51BOISMalik Sherrod 40 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)28–21
- Q3 13:52AFLiam Szarka 1 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)21–21
- Q2 4:52AFKemper Hodges 3 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)21–14
- Q2 10:25BOISMatt Lauter 3 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)21–7
- Q1 2:38BOISDylan Riley 34 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)14–7
- Q1 7:09BOISDylan Riley 4 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:54AFDylan Carson 2 Yd Run (Jacob Medina Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1390, BOIS Elo 1578 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF +5.1 (38% to win) — 5.9 points clear of AF's market line of +11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBoise State leads 9–4 · Boise State has won 3 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| BOIS | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#55) | CORE overall | -17.3 (#119) |
| -1 / -7 | offense / defense | +6 / +24 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 3.13 |
| 1.98 | allowed / drive | 3.57 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 13% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →