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Boise State vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 20, 11:00 PM
Falcon StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 14 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 49 |
| AF | 7 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
AF 1390
BOIS 1578
Projected spread
AF +5.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
BOIS
65% to win
Market spread
AF +11
sportsbook line
Model edge
AF
5.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
35%
AF · market 24%
Our model blends Elo ratings (AF Elo 1390, BOIS Elo 1578) plus home-field advantage. That projects AF +5.1 (35% to win) — 5.9 points of value on AF versus the market line of +11.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
AF (top)BOIS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: AF 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
BOIS2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedAF
Offense
0.20
PPA / play
0.2942%
Success rate
47%1.28
Explosiveness
1.223.66
Pts / opportunity
4.6079%
Power success
79%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.4136%
Success rate allowed
50%1.42
Explosiveness allowed
1.3717%
Havoc rate
11%19%
Stuff rate
13%Key matchups · Pro
- AF pass offense (0.55 PPA) vs. BOIS pass defense (0.08 allowed) — edge AF.
- BOIS pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. AF pass defense (0.51 allowed) — edge AF.
- BOIS rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. AF rush defense (0.31 allowed) — edge AF.
Drive-by-drive
BOIS 7/11 scoring drives← own end zone →AF 6/11 scoring drives
BOISPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 24Q1
AFTD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1
BOISTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
AFPUNT4 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
BOISTD5 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1
AFDOWNS5 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1
BOISTD10 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q2
AFTD10 pl, 72 yds· own 25Q2
BOISPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 15Q2
AFPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 12Q2
BOISINT7 pl, 42 yds· own 43Q2
AFEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q2
AFTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
BOISTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
AFFG19 pl, 67 yds· own 25Q3
BOISTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
AFTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
BOISTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
AFTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
BOISTD3 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ4
AFINT8 pl, 42 yds· own 25Q4
BOISEND2 pl, -3 yds· own 38Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BOIS up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
BOIS went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Air Force?
Boise State 49, Air Force 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had BOIS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.