Baylor vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BAYTeam statsTCU
- Q4 0:30BAYKole Wilson 35 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)36–42
- Q4 3:08BAYKeaton Thomas 24 Yd Fumble Return (Sawyer Robertson Run for Two-Point Conversion)29–42
- Q4 6:04TCUKevorian Barnes 14 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)21–42
- Q4 13:46TCUTrent Battle 65 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)21–35
- Q4 14:55BAYConnor Hawkins 41 Yd Field Goal 21–28
- Q3 6:40BAYJadon Porter 18 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Sawyer Robertson Pass to Josh Cameron for Two-Point Conversion)18–28
- Q3 11:39TCUKa'Morreun Pimpton 3 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)10–28
- Q2 0:11TCUJordan Dwyer 6 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)10–21
- Q2 2:04BAYConnor Hawkins 42 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 6:10TCUKevorian Barnes 5 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)7–14
- Q2 10:59TCUDJ Rogers 8 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)7–7
- Q1 0:53BAYBryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassSawyer Robertson 25/52, 318 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushMichael Turner 12 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecAshtyn Hawkins 7 REC, 95 YDS
- PassJosh Hoover 22/31, 231 YDS, 3 TD
- RushKevorian Barnes 25 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJordan Dwyer 7 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTCU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:59TCU +20%
DJ Rogers 8 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)
- Q1 0:53BAY +20%
Bryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)
- Q2 0:11TCU +18%
Jordan Dwyer 6 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)
- Q2 6:10TCU +18%
Kevorian Barnes 5 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)
- Q4 14:55BAY +10%
Connor Hawkins 41 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 11:39TCU +9%
Ka'Morreun Pimpton 3 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Baylor vs. TCU?
Baylor 36, TCU 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.
| BAY | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 439 | Total yards | 427 |
| 318 | Passing yards | 231 |
| 121 | Rushing yards | 196 |
| 27 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/52 | Comp/Att | 22/31 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-44 | Penalties | 6-75 |
| 31:48 | Possession | 28:12 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:15 TCU punt on 4th & 2 at TCU 24. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.37 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:30BAYKole Wilson 35 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)36–42
- Q4 3:08BAYKeaton Thomas 24 Yd Fumble Return (Sawyer Robertson Run for Two-Point Conversion)29–42
- Q4 6:04TCUKevorian Barnes 14 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)21–42
- Q4 13:46TCUTrent Battle 65 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)21–35
- Q4 14:55BAYConnor Hawkins 41 Yd Field Goal 21–28
- Q3 6:40BAYJadon Porter 18 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Sawyer Robertson Pass to Josh Cameron for Two-Point Conversion)18–28
- Q3 11:39TCUKa'Morreun Pimpton 3 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)10–28
- Q2 0:11TCUJordan Dwyer 6 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)10–21
- Q2 2:04BAYConnor Hawkins 42 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 6:10TCUKevorian Barnes 5 Yd Run (Nate McCashland Kick)7–14
- Q2 10:59TCUDJ Rogers 8 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Nate McCashland Kick)7–7
- Q1 0:53BAYBryson Washington 1 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TCU Elo 1718, BAY Elo 1593 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TCU -7.4 (70% to win) — 3.9 points clear of TCU's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTCU leads 60–50–5 · 43% have been one-possession games
| BAY | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#54) | CORE overall | +13.2 (#31) |
| +6 / +0 | offense / defense | +6 / -7 |
| 2.31 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.13 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +8 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →