#6Ashtyn Hawkins

WR·Baylor·2025

Ashtyn Hawkins is a Versatile WR for Baylor. Ashtyn's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 85 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ashtyn Hawkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

53 Receptions621 Rec yards0 Rec TD11.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume26
Explosiveness31
Consistency40
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency40th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.60 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 2.65 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Arizona (SP+ 12).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Long	EPA/play
1	vsAuburn	L24-38	11.6	4	70	17.5	36	1.07
2	@SMU	W48-45	13.4	10	145	14.5	28	1.02
3	vsSamford	W42-7	—	3	42	14.0	36	-0.35
4	vsArizona State	L24-27	3.9	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.21
5	@Oklahoma State	W45-27	-15.1	2	15	7.5	8	0.33
6	vsKansas State	W35-34	7.0	4	33	8.3	12	0.20
8	@TCU	L36-42	8.3	7	95	13.6	41	1.01
9	@Cincinnati	L20-41	4.5	3	27	9.0	15	-0.04
10	vsUCF	W30-3	-1.2	8	33	4.1	15	-0.18
12	vsUtah	L28-55	22.2	7	119	17.0	37	1.25
13	@Arizona	L17-41	12.0	1	8	8.0	8	2.65
14	vsHouston	L24-31	7.4	3	35	11.7	23	-0.04

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

9.2%

Passing plays

16.0%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

7.9%

Passing downs

12.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.85
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.51 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).